John ZechnerEnergy Select Sector SPDR FundXLECOMMENTFeb 15, 2018

You can't be bullish energy, because more supply is coming from OPEC and the US. Supply is surging, while demand is far below. So, inventories are building.

Oil prices have shown a little life recently. This is a contrarian trade, but likes it full year. It's part of the cyclical trade and will rise in a relief rally when rotation happens again.

Trump wants to reduce energy price. Near-term, any resolution in the Russia-Ukraine war will put pressure and a ceiling on oil prices.

He sold his small position. Crude is down 7.5% the past month. For energy, you need to be in the fully integrated names. But it's too early to play energy--see how much China will stimulate demand.

Finally, the tide has turned in China (news of government stimulus this past week), so it's time to be exposed to China, which ahs been a terrible place to invest. It's a trade of at least 6 months.

The sector has been going nowhere. It needs a catalyst like an event in the Middle East to move shares up. Likes Diamondback and Exxon.

He owns a lot of energy stocks. This sector is performing a lot better year to date than the street gives it credit. Many energy companies like Exxon and Marathon are doing well. The second half of 2024 looks positive.

Her energy outlook: bullish. If there's a rotation based on valuation, then energy is now attractive. If the Fed cuts rates in the second half of 2024, the 2-year-yield will drop which will benefit dividend stocks like energy. Also, we're in summer driving season and an oil price shock can always happen.

There's been a lot of M&A in energy, so she expects nice returns for the rest of the year. YOY energy earnings for companies are starting to climb.

Oil inventories, but also oil demand in the cycle are both peaking. He's bullish oil for the rest of the year.

Energy is up 3% this week. People are driving and gas demand is up big, but expect volatility.

Will benefit from investors taking profits from tech and buying energy.

Interest rate cuts are expected sometime this year, so you want to be into dividend payers before those cuts happen.

Long-term supply and demand will support energy stocks, but now the commodity is range-bound. Stronger demand from China and geopolitical concerns will raise energy prices and stocks. 

The oil price is up 16% in the past 3 months and energy stocks up 11%, so stocks lag. However, interest in oil futures has not been this high since Oct. 2021, so eeryone is looking for oil opportunities. Also, hedge funds are holding their highest positions in energy since Feb. 2022, when the Russian war began. This means the spot price of oil is vulnerable to a correction, but the supply/demand imbalance makes energy stocks a buy.