Stockchase Opinions

Jeffrey Auxier Weight Watchers Int'l Inc WTW-N TOP PICK Feb 27, 2004

Obesity is really becoming an epidemic.
$37.520

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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TOP PICK
Indications are it is going up, and it can go up to 50 dollars. But it is risky since it is a turn-around.
SELL
If he owned it he would ‘slim’ down. It is just off record levels. Market is ‘growing’. Insiders own 57%. Book value is negative.
COMMENT

Got pulled down with the whole herbal life problems and they got grouped in with this. They have a lot of strong competitors. Typically, when they launch a new campaign and get a new spokesperson, they attract new people to sign up with their programs. Couldn't see a catalyst.

COMMENT

This is a field that in many ways is growing. A lot of people are obese and want to do something about it. There is a need here but there is a lot of competition. Missed their earnings target 3 times in a row. If it keeps going down, it could end up in his Stock Watch list. When he sees a chart that is going down, down, down, he wants to see some sort of stability or for it to go up to some degree before buying into it. Still too expensive for him.

COMMENT

Has had a really disastrous time with a big drop as of late. Although obesity is a major issue globally, this company is having a large amount of walking away from the program, larger than expected. Their push into the Internet online space is not working. Also, a lot of their fast-growing segments of their specific products have not been selling as well as they had expected. Interesting where it is, and he would take a better look at it right now.

WAIT

The stock price has gone down because their earnings has steadily, steadily fallen. There are all hoping that Oprah is going to turn the stock around. The stock was just at its bottom and about at its FMV, but still about 3X BV. Had a double yesterday and 29% today, so the market is building in a lot of recovery based on Oprah being able to sell the concept that the company can come back big time. Maybe she can, but you are paying for it now. Wait for this to settle down.

DON'T BUY

Obesity and health are more of a public health issue then ever before. But looking at the multitude of different diet plans and programs out there, there is just so much competition and so much of it is free. Their format is weekly meetings and weekly groups, and in today’s world he thinks people are just too busy for that.

DON'T BUY

He was mystified after it took off the first time. It has been in a steady decline since 2011. Opra should have caused a comeback but that has not been the case. The stock has not gotten down to a place where you can buy it safely.

WAIT
It fell like a brick in mid/late-2018. It if manages to crack $30, it could be very good. It's doing the right things so far this year. Wait for a breakout.
DON'T BUY
They bought a telehelp platform, so how will this help against the companies producing the popular weight-loss drugs?

Little effect, because you don't need WTW if everybody is taking these weight-loss drugs.