Latest Top Picks

Stock Opinions by Glenn Paradis, BA, CFA

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Canadian Oil Sands
Guidance is a little bit on the low end. Costs are going to go up. There are a lot of headwinds in the way. Would try to buy under $33. If you own, put it away for a long period of time.
oil / gas
DON'T BUY
Bank of Montreal
In the long run, you need exposure in Canadian banks. This one has been the poor stepchild in the banking group. Have had exposure to all the bad things in the market and less exposure to the good things. Would prefer Toronto Dominion (TD-T) to any of the banks right now.
banks
SELL
If you own, consider it as a tax loss sale. There is nothing imminent that is going to drive it up. On Dec 24 it will be added into the TSX index. That will give you a good opportunity to take advantage of some strength. Right now, $.84 for 08 and $1 for 09 is too high.
consulting
HOLD
Yellow Pages Limited
A great longer-term story. They continually raise their distributions. Stock has come off fairly significantly in the last few months but has held in very well compared to some of its global peers. They have competition in their online business. Doesn't see a lot of significant upside in the near term. Could consider buying more on weakness.
communications / media
BUY ON WEAKNESS
A fantastic company that is very well run. He has concerns on cotton costs. They have to execute on some new lines for Wal-Mart. Also could have tariffs put on.
clothing stores
DON'T BUY
BlackBerry
On a technical basis, it has not been looking very healthy recently. He feels they will meet the guidance for the quarter but is concerned about guidance for the next year. Layoffs on Wall Street could have some effect. Consumer part is good and growing. Thanks it will be trade between $90 and $110.
electrical / electronic
TOP PICK
When looking for stocks that are a defensive growth, this is the one that comes to mind. Going forward, he sees 5% same store growth, 10% square footage growth and maybe a little bit of margin expansion, so you are seeing mid teens EPS growth. You're paying roughly 2X 08, 18X 09, which is not that high of the multiple.
specialty stores
TOP PICK
Metallurgical silicon. Trades on the Netherlands exchange. They are a 50% plus owner of Timminco (TIM-T) so this is a good way to play that. Also a big player in the minor metals.
other mines
TOP PICK
PotashCorp
Has been working his portfolio around the agricultural sector and sees it working out in 2008. Out of the fertilizer business, this company is the best positioned. Has about a 50% lower inventory level then the 10-year average. Not a lot of new supply coming around. Developing countries are more and more in need of fertilizer.
integrated mines
BUY
Totally range bound between $38 and $45 for years. With the acquisition of Reuters, you have a global dominant player but there are integration risks. Credit crunch also means layoffs on Wall Street and those are the big customers. Would not buy and hold.
publishing / printing
DON'T BUY
Expect this will continue to go down. There is a lot of risk in the name. Has been oversold, but doesn't see any way they are going to have a quick fix. If you own, Sell on any strength.
banks
DON'T BUY
Inco
Some large capital programs going on with this company, so probably won't issues dividends. Expects the stock will continue to tread water. Dead money.
integrated mines
HOLD
As a medical device company its got its risks. The market they are in is not fully developed, so they need to clear the FDA hurdles, develop a market and hit their milestones. Arctic Circler(R) should be a very big piece of that. Expects to have some very good news in 05/06 on this.
misc industrial products
WAIT
Royal Bank
Not too excited on the near term prospects on it, but you shouldn't lose a lot here. Really need to address problems in the US. Have a great Canadian franchise. Return on Equity (ROE) is lower than the group and their capital ratios are not as good. Balance sheet is weaker. Until you see them focusing on their US problems, stay clear.
banks
BUY
Has been consolidating around the $1 for some time. Seeing some selling pressures re: warrants that were converted. A relatively high risk name, but if they are successful across one or two of the different platforms they have, stock could be significantly higher. Good management team.
biotechnology / pharmaceutical
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