Stockchase Opinions

Brett Girard, CPA, CA, CFA Walmart Inc WMT-N WEAK BUY Sep 16, 2020

Recent retail sales data in the US shows that about 40% is concentrated in the 4 names of Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe's, and Target. Going forward, this is a play on the US GDP. If you believe the economy will chug along at a decent rate, this is the one to buy. If not, then look at one of the niche e-retailers.

$136.825

Stock price when the opinion was issued

department stores
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It is well run and the business should do well. Given tariffs, shipping costs, and the potential decline of the U.S. dollar, profitability may go down. It is buying back stock but he is not waiting for a disconnect. At 30X earnings it is quite expensive.

BUY

Hard not to like. Great job on e-commerce, after having lagged. Now has a lovely hybrid model of in-store and online. Very price competitive. Well-positioned structurally for the long term. Massive importer of goods, so tariffs are a pressure. Valuation's not cheap, but it never is. Buy and forget about it.

BUY
Research based on Bob Lang of Explosiveoptions.net

Has been rangebound within $93-100, but is digesting after a big move up after April. The Chaykin Money Flow remains positive. The MACD line made a bullish crossover Lang suggests buying ahead of next month's report. Lang targets $105-110 and he agrees.

DON'T BUY

It's too expensive considering its growth. A good company, but 55% of their business is low-margin groceries.

BUY

They trade at 40x PE because they are capturing market share and traffic, and have earnings and revenues growth. Their biggest risk is in groceries from Amazon who want to build out that business. WMT price momentum will continue until there's a weak quarter.

HOLD

Iconic brand, as well as scale and efficiency. You could say it's quite expensive. On the other hand, what a moat. Could very well keep chugging along without having its multiple fall. Very profitable, lots of FCF to buy back shares. Nearest competitor is TGT, which is not doing well. Perhaps TGT's loss is WMT's gain.

SELL

Trading at 40x forward PE. Need he say more? Extremely overvalued. Should trade closer to 20x PE. But there's a premium for safety. Avoid, avoid, avoid.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Oct 09/24, Up 30%)

Executes really well. Don't get too many surprises, everyone understands it. Massive upside. Chart shows how it broke out of the little "step" recently. Will benefit immensely in the retail space from the adaption of AI (especially as it relates to knowing their customers' habits).

DON'T BUY

Trades at 40s forward PE, extremely overvalued (should be 20x). Avoid.

DON'T BUY

You have to look at these companies in terms of what can go wrong. If you go into a sustained, negative economic period, there's going to be a lot of hurt on a company like this. The outlook is very sunny, and his first question is what happens when it gets cloudy?