Michael Sprung West Fraser Timber WFG-T WAIT Oct 11, 2023

Lots of upside. Wonderful balance sheet. Commodities are a good place at this part of the cycle. Earnings revisions are going up. End of 2024/start of 2025 should do well. Stock's gone nowhere for a while, an opportunity. Great management and assets.

Shows the struggles in forestry and wood products. Now in the part of the cycle of reducing capacity. US market is what will drive the upside, but rebound could be 3 months or 2 years away. You could start looking at it.

TOL is one of the biggest homebuilders in the US, and a leading indicator. When it starts to go, as it has in the last few days, it's usually good for the lumber stocks.

Homebuilding stocks in the US have been going straight up, but Canadian forestry stocks have been going the other way. This name has done the best and held its share price.

IFP and CFP have really started to bottom on the charts. He hasn't done enough digging to know who has a better earnings profile. But looking at the charts, one of these might be a good bet to catch up to WFG and to the US homebuilders. Lower interest rates will have an impact as well.

His colleague has a saying, "Buy at Halloween, sell at the Super Bowl." Really likes the breakout to new all-time highs. Anyone who's bought in the last couple of months is in the green, very positive. Likes the setup for a seasonal trade into January. Yield is 1.28%.

Very volatile and cyclical, which she tends not to invest in. In a downturn, these companies can really lose money. Not a long-term growth company. Recent pop may be anticipation of US rate cuts benefiting home sales. Secular housing shortage in both Canada and US.

The chart has been steady despite plunges in the timber price. Impressive. But he wouldn't enter this now.

It is up 20% from July. The price today is pricing in expected improvements for three years from now. Interest rates in the U.S. are still high so lumber prices may not improve that much. If investing in the lumber industry he would look at Interfor.

Sounds counterintuitive, but WFG and trees are going to be beneficiaries. US still needs them, just going to pay higher prices.

GRT.UN is a good name. PKI works well here. Materials sector, with a name like NTR. 

There's even a part of the TSX that does well with a falling CAD, as earnings get amplified.

(Note the short timeframe.) Chose this based on historical seasonality for lumber. Surprised those stocks aren't acting better, especially since the California fires.