Stockchase Opinions

Greg Dean Walgreen Boots Alliance WBA-Q PAST TOP PICK Apr 09, 2018

(A Top Pick Aug 2, 2016, Down 17%) Putting Boots into Walgreens has been quite a challenge. Still a well run business and a cheap stock.

$62.850

Stock price when the opinion was issued

specialty stores
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DON'T BUY

Beware of companies closing stores and calling that successfully. Closing stores is never good. This whole space has been challenged. He had a poor experience holding the peer, CVS. WBA was just kicked out of an index.

DON'T BUY

The alliance had all this promise, and just hasn't been able to deliver. He's not brave or smart enough to pick the bottom on a stock like this. He owns Loblaw and, with it, Shopper's Drug Mart.

DON'T BUY

Problems. Avoid. Called "value", but continues to move south. Technically, 200-day MA is going lower and stock price is below that. 5x forward PE, but earnings growth is negative.

COMMENT

It will go down only 9 more points. The new CEO needs to invest AI, cut overhead and increase profit. 

DON'T BUY

Avoid, because of poor execution and being in a poor sector. There will be a tax on online delivery services. Too many problems.

DON'T BUY

He bought CVS instead. WBA did a big purchase of Boots which they may be regretting. WBA really operates pharmacies, plus a medical business. He prefers CVS for Aetna, their insurance business, pharmacy benefits and a medical business.

SELL

Many headwinds, too big to overcome. Sell, take the loss.

DON'T BUY

It reports Friday.  It needs to do something to help its woes. He suspect the CEO has buyers lined up for parts of the company. Don't bet against the CEO, but don't bet on WBA.

RISKY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

It was a good quarter. But it is important to note that one quarter does not make a trend, and there is still lots of work to be done here. It is still in turnaround mode. It still has a massive amount of debt. It is cheap, though, and the quarter might see shorts start to cover a bit. So the trend will likely be 'up' and the worst 'could' be over here. But there remains plenty of risk and we would prefer to see another quarter or two of continued improvement, and even pay more once the turn is indeed fully established and on a firm foothold. Much could still go wrong here. 
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SELL

They entered a great deal (Walgreens to be taken private by Sycamore in $10 billion). If you own shares, sell and buy Costco.