Visa Inc.VDON'T BUYMar 17, 2014Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jul 24, 2026. Market Open.
Mastercard and Visa have been weak because cash-to-card conversion has historically been the easiest thing for them to do but is now over. Value-added services are instead driving more growth. Agentic AI traffic is about to go parabolic, so can the cards play the role of authentication layer? He thinks so, and they should. Stablecoins and peer-to-peer transactions are not big deals, not major threats.
Both are phenomenal businesses. Comparable on valuation and share price performance. If you own one, don't switch.
His clients own Visa, and have for a very long time. Makes the most sense for him as more payments become digitized and V captures more market share. It's the largest payment network, so its profitability is a bit higher on margins. Bit north of 20x PE, FCF yield north of 4%. Attractive valuation for an essential business.
An unassailable fortress for a long time. Fintech and card companies have been weak, with concerns about disruptive digital payment systems. Near-term uncertainty about long-term profitability.
Pretty dominant position. Still trading above long-term moving average. Lagging in this market. Not well inflation-protected. Put your focus elsewhere.
He's out. Momentum has broken. Price is now below 200-day MA, and that's rolling over. Secular growth drivers are still there, for about 14% earnings growth at 23x PE. But it's more about valuation right now. If you think of it as technology, investors are seeing a lot more exciting names out there.
When technicals improve, he'd look at it again.
They reported a strong quarter with 9% volume growth. People are spending. Even if prices rise, Visa still makes money. Other areas are growing and amount to 30%, such as merchants hiring Visa to do marketing services cybersecurity fraud prevention. Also, there's room to expand to many parts of the world still using cash.
(Analysts’ price target is $403.54)
Wonderful performer. Also, you don’t have the credit risk of lending to people, you are the processing system and get your 3%-4% on everything that is done. Has been a marvellous formula for making loads of money. Appeared expensive when they became public, but have just gone from strength to strength. It is currently at all time highs and is up something like 3.5X from 2009. At some stage, the growth in the volume of transactions will start to taper off. In fact it is getting slower because people are starting to use things like smart phone, etc.