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Opinions Michael Simpson, CFA
United Parcel ServicesUPSDON'T BUYDec 14, 2017
Michael Simpson, CFAStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
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Struggling for a long time. Capital intensive. Had to raise wages a lot. Behind the 8 ball compared to, say, AMZN (a more efficient logistics business). Competitive industry. Higher energy prices a problem, as are tariffs. One of those cases where it's fallen a lot, but that doesn't make it a good business.
You want to buy stocks when they're down. A deal at 10.5x PE with 11% growth. Don't have to jump in right now, but he'd sell puts ~$75.
Bad year, tariff uncertainty, high labour costs, elevated capex, high debt. Market didn't like reduction in business with AMZN, but it's a low-margin business. E-commerce continues to grow, looking to expand in Mexico. Thinks earnings will inflect this year. Loves the dividend of 7%.
Transport stocks in general have been weak. One of the weakest stocks in the sector. Execution problems. He's the last guy to try to pick a bottom. Yield is 7%, without huge coverage. Doesn't expect dividend cut, but doesn't inspire confidence when entire earnings go to pay the dividend. Stay away.
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Premium contentUnited Parcel Service, Inc. (UPS) is a package delivery company. The Company is a provider of global supply chain management solutions. The Company operates through three segments: U.S. Domestic Package operations, International Package operations, and Supply Chain & Freight operations. As of December 31, 2016, the Company delivered packages in over 220 countries and territories. The Company offers a spectrum of the United States domestic guaranteed ground and air package transportation services. The International Package segment includes the small package operations in Europe, Asia-Pacific, Canada and Latin America, the Indian sub-continent, the Middle East and Africa. The Supply Chain & Freight segment includes its forwarding and logistics services, truckload freight brokerage, UPS Freight and its financial offerings through UPS Capital. The Company serves the global market for logistics services, which include transportation, distribution, contract logistics and ground freight. Social media mentions are up 2500% in the past 24h.
A dividend pick for 2025. Is down a lot from their highs. A contrarian play. It pays around a 5% dividend yield. It trades at a reasonable valuation and offers decent earnings growth in 2025 of 5-7%. Collect the dividend and enjoy a little capital appreciation on top. You won't shoot the lights out, but you can relax with this steady earner.
This is their busy time. It is not as compelling now. Their peak date is in a few days. Their seasonal hiring may be a little bit less this year. They get surges and try to deal with it by charging higher rates. It could lead to higher costs also. Between now and Christmas if there is no bad weather the company could do well. It all has to do with how they deal with the surge in business. At some point Ecommerce growth will slow. At the current valuation it is not as compelling as at lower levels.