Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)

The root of success for homebuilders is new orders and prices, the rest of it is kind of noise. This company is doing well.

(Top Pick Feb 17/15, Down 29.60%) A very high quality builder with a lot of land holdings. Housing starts are at record levels. Data points support a continued recovery in housing. Last year it was not as fast as people had hoped. This one is quite interesting unless the US goes into recession, which he does not see.

(Top Pick Feb 17/15, Down 9.97%) It is down on interest rate concerns. The home builder group in the US have been soft over the last couple of months. Results announced sounded very good to him. The outlook is very good over the next few years.

A home builder which operates at the very high end of the industry, building luxury homes. As the consumer does well in the US and as people have more confidence, they are going to buy more homes, and this is a great way to play domestic US consumer strength.

One of the luxury builders in US housing. They have pricing power and are still coming off the 2008 problem and are getting volume increases. They have secured about 8 years’ inventory of land. Household formations are running at about 1 million a year, and historically they have run at about 50% higher.

US homebuilder. Services the luxury high end of the market. After a muted year in the US housing market in 2014, he expects there will be an acceleration in housing starts in 2015/2016, and they are well positioned to take advantage of that. Because it services the high end of the market, there is less price sensitivity from its customers. A lot of exposure to California, US South and attractive markets. Not cheap, but looking at 2016 numbers it is trading at a PE of about 15X, which historically is not expensive.

Likes the housing sector in the US. Prefers the XHB-N ETF. Thinks they are early on in the housing recovery. It’s a great sector.

(Market Call Minute) Has been a strong performer through the recovery but not this year. Further recovery in US housing will make it go higher but increases in interest rates will make it go lower.