Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) Buy, Sell or Hold

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Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)

157.00

-0.14 (0.09%)

as of Jul 2, 2026, 9:51:02 pm Market Open.

56 watching

Investor Insights

Jul 5, 2026, 12:00 am

This summary was created by AI, based on 8 opinions in the last 12 months.

The reviews on Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL) depict a company navigating a challenging environment characterized by rising interest rates, which typically dampen homebuilder performance. Recently, the company reported decent but not exceptional results, with concerns about a weak forecast in light of the ongoing economic pressures. Despite these challenges, some analysts have highlighted the potential for improvements as interest rates are expected to decline, fueled by upcoming changes in the Federal Reserve leadership. Recommendations have been made to adjust stop-loss positions strategically to lock in gains and mitigate risks, showing a cautious yet optimistic perspective among experts. Overall, while TOL has experienced some positive stock performance in recent months, the consensus remains that fundamental issues tied to high interest rates and building costs persist.

Consensus

Cautious

Valuation

Fair Value

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DON'T BUY

The housing sector has been rolling over due to rising rates, but hasn't seen many stock downgrades. TOL got downgraded today. It's already Fallen 45% from its highs. The bear case is still alive and well, though. The cost per home remains too high.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jun 15/21, Down 13%) Luxury homebuilder, so not as sensitive to the mortgage market. Still positive on the homebuilders, a lot of the damage from negative economic forecasting is already built in.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Dec 21/21, Down 11.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with TOL has triggered its stop at $60. To remain disciplined, we recommend covering the position at this time. This results in a net investment loss of 7%, when combined with our previous buy recommendation.

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TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly As one of the largest luxury home builders in the US, we again reiterate TOL as a TOP PICK. Continued low interest rates sparking new construction should allow the company to pay down debt and buy back stock. Recently reported earnings beat analyst expectations by over 20% and ROE is 16%. It pays a small dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 15% of cash flow. It trades at 10x earnings compared to peers at 15x and is just over 1.5x book value. We continue to recommend a stop at $60.00, looking to achieve $80.00 -- upside potential over 16%. Yield 0.99% (Analysts’ price target is $79.75)

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sep 07/21, Up 23.4%)Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly Our PAST TOP PICK with TOL is progressing well and has achieved its $75 objective. To be disciplined, we recommend covering half the position at this time and trailing up the stop (from $54) to $60.

BUY

It reports Tuesday. Despite supply shortages, profit margins have been good. Thanks to hybrid work driving housing demand, this stock has been a horse. Today's bad jobs numbers won't effect this.

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1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly We reiterate our TOP PICK recommendation of TOL as a luxury home builder. Continued low interest rates continues to spark new construction allowing the company to pay down debt, buy back stock, while growing cash reserves. It pays a small dividend, backed by a payout ratio under 15% of cash flow. It trades at 12x earnings and less than 2x book value. We would buy this with a stop loss at $54.00, looking to achieve $75.00 -- upside potential over 16%. Yield 1.07% (Analysts’ price target is $74.10)

BUY

Demand for single-family houses is surging, but homebuilders can't meet demand. So, they can charge what the market can bear (higher prices). TOL is a high-end builder that reported a good quarter yesterday. Their average selling prices and margins were greater than expected, which saw a 33-cent earnings beat off a $1.54. Other metrics, including backlog, hit record levels. This has upside.

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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
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TOP PICK

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly TOL is one the largest luxury home builders in the US, focusing on "move up" and "empty nesters" looking to upgrade to higher level housing. As the economy returns post-pandemic demand will surge once again. It trades at 14x earnings, compared to peers at 22x. With analyst views on growth, it trades at PEG ratio of less than 1 and is at under 1.5x book value. It pays a small dividend, backed by a payout ratio of about 20% of cashflow. Cash reserves are estimated over $1.3 billion and holding steady. We would buy this with a stop loss at $41, looking to achieve $71 -- upside potential over 22%. Yield 1.18% (Analysts’ price target is $70.91)

BUY

Contrary to bearish fears, Toll Brothers' CEO feels this housing boom has legs and is actually starting to recover to satiate pent-up demand. He agrees. This isn't the eve of the Great Recession; there won't be a housing collapse, because lending laws are much tighter. In May, existing U.S. home prices hit a record high. Homebuilders have excellent credit and the banks are strong.

TOP PICK

A luxury homebuilder, a sector he likes. Trades at 10X PE and is benefit from the swell in luxury spending. Good value here. (Analysts’ price target is $69.33)

COMMENT

They report Tuesday. It benefited from the exodus out of cities as a homebuilder. However, shares hit a wall earlier this month, like all the stay-at-home stocks. If they reveal strong orders and expanding gross margins, the stock will rise. But lumber and appliance costs are under control, that everything is perfect.

BUY

On Wednesday we'll see US home sales data, which he feels remain strong, but there isn't enough supply. Toll and DHI (DR Horton) are buys here to capitalize on this shortage.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick June 15/16. Up 42%.) As with the banks, this is one that you Buy and be patient with. Home formations in the US have been below trend for years and years. People have to live somewhere and the homebuilders will do well over time.

COMMENT

He would want to be in the homebuilders for sure. The Trump administration is going to make this a very attractive place to go. If income tax rates are coming down, it is going to be terrific. He also feels millennials want a house, so the formation is going to happen.

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Toll Brothers Inc. (TOL)