Kevin Simpson TJX Companies TJX-N BUY Jul 12, 2024

The US consumer remains a risk despite Target's strong performance today and their quarter. The lower-end consumer is challenged by inflation and are looking for discount sellers like TJX. Their margin guidance is 31%, which is phenomenal for retail. Target's number is encouraging though. He will look at them. TJX beat earnings and raised guidance.

Earnings beat and an excellent report, but guidance was conservative, and he expects TJX will beat it. They're in the sweet spot as off-price consumer goods are doing well. TJX has replaced Target in retail in consumer discretionary.

He sold a March covered all, $125 strike, expiring March 14. He loved their blow out quarter with 5% same store sales growth and raised the dividend by 13%.

Will survive this tariff war, TJX will thrive with excess inventory from suppliers.

Loves it. Will do well in a recession. Consumers are loyal.

Have totally sidestepped the tariffs, seeing momentum and fundamentals are great.

Off-price retail is in the sweet spot now, and TJX is the best at it. They reported beats and raised full-year outlook. They can avoid tariffs. Are seeing margin expansion.

They don't pay tariffs on their goods. Rather, the initial importers in the US pay.

Pretty cautious on consumer names, since we're about mid-late cycle economically. Interest rates coming down might help the consumer. In the consumer space, he'd prefer a name like this. Downshift in spending going on now.

Up 15.7% this year, helped by buying goods where the tariff has already been paid by someone else. Key metric is same-store sales: +4% in 2025. Trades at 28x 2026 PE. PEG ratio is 2.7, pricey, but investors will pay up for quality. Has longed like TJX. Heavy share buybacks this year with more to come this year. Best among the discount apparel retailers.