Kevin Simpson TJX Companies TJX-N BUY Jul 12, 2024

It reports Wednesday. Investors typically sell this, even on good results, which creates a buying opportunity.

They recently reported top and bottom line beats along with light guidance, the latter of which triggered weakness in shares. Those sellers jumped the gun, though. The CEO notes that the supply of discounted merchandise will continue, and in fact the closure of 150 Macy's stores will be a bonanza for them. TJX will be fine.

They benefit from their core consumers and customers looking for a bargain at a time when consumers are upset in paying more for things. TJX says quality inventory and their results have been good. A brick-and-mortar retail success.

He added more. The consumer is trading down (see Kellogg's and Starbucks earnings). There's growth here again, and have been increasing their modest dividend. Boast $4 billion in free cash flow the past year.

(A Top Pick May 12/23, Up 24%)

Discount clothing business that is performing well. Owns companies like Winners and HomeSense. Higher interest rates pushing consumers to lower priced shopping centers. Has sold shares (believes is fully valued). 

They report next Wednesday, an important day. The street expects comp sales at 2.7%. Q2 saw a lot of gifting events--Mother's and Father's Days. He expects a strong report.

The US consumer remains a risk despite Target's strong performance today and their quarter. The lower-end consumer is challenged by inflation and are looking for discount sellers like TJX. Their margin guidance is 31%, which is phenomenal for retail. Target's number is encouraging though. He will look at them. TJX beat earnings and raised guidance.

Earnings beat and an excellent report, but guidance was conservative, and he expects TJX will beat it. They're in the sweet spot as off-price consumer goods are doing well. TJX has replaced Target in retail in consumer discretionary.

He sold a March covered all, $125 strike, expiring March 14. He loved their blow out quarter with 5% same store sales growth and raised the dividend by 13%.