Kevin SimpsonTJX CompaniesTJXBUYDec 05, 2025

It reports Wednesday. Business is good and he expects fabulous numbers. Note: shares fall even when they report good numbers. Buy.

Up 15.7% this year, helped by buying goods where the tariff has already been paid by someone else. Key metric is same-store sales: +4% in 2025. Trades at 28x 2026 PE. PEG ratio is 2.7, pricey, but investors will pay up for quality. Has longed like TJX. Heavy share buybacks this year with more to come this year. Best among the discount apparel retailers. 

Pretty cautious on consumer names, since we're about mid-late cycle economically. Interest rates coming down might help the consumer. In the consumer space, he'd prefer a name like this. Downshift in spending going on now.

They don't pay tariffs on their goods. Rather, the initial importers in the US pay.

Have totally sidestepped the tariffs, seeing momentum and fundamentals are great.

Off-price retail is in the sweet spot now, and TJX is the best at it. They reported beats and raised full-year outlook. They can avoid tariffs. Are seeing margin expansion.

Loves it. Will do well in a recession. Consumers are loyal.

Will survive this tariff war, TJX will thrive with excess inventory from suppliers.

He sold a March covered all, $125 strike, expiring March 14. He loved their blow out quarter with 5% same store sales growth and raised the dividend by 13%.

Earnings beat and an excellent report, but guidance was conservative, and he expects TJX will beat it. They're in the sweet spot as off-price consumer goods are doing well. TJX has replaced Target in retail in consumer discretionary.

The US consumer remains a risk despite Target's strong performance today and their quarter. The lower-end consumer is challenged by inflation and are looking for discount sellers like TJX. Their margin guidance is 31%, which is phenomenal for retail. Target's number is encouraging though. He will look at them. TJX beat earnings and raised guidance.

They report next Wednesday, an important day. The street expects comp sales at 2.7%. Q2 saw a lot of gifting events--Mother's and Father's Days. He expects a strong report.

He bought more today as it made a new high today. If the consumer is weakening, TJX will benefit. This stock has seen a holding pattern in terms of margins, post-Covid, but they are no increasing margins, earnings and dividends. They can do well in a good as well as bad economy.

(A Top Pick May 12/23, Up 24%)

Discount clothing business that is performing well. Owns companies like Winners and HomeSense. Higher interest rates pushing consumers to lower priced shopping centers. Has sold shares (believes is fully valued).