Stock price when the opinion was issued
The US consumer remains a risk despite Target's strong performance today and their quarter. The lower-end consumer is challenged by inflation and are looking for discount sellers like TJX. Their margin guidance is 31%, which is phenomenal for retail. Target's number is encouraging though. He will look at them. TJX beat earnings and raised guidance.
Up 15.7% this year, helped by buying goods where the tariff has already been paid by someone else. Key metric is same-store sales: +4% in 2025. Trades at 28x 2026 PE. PEG ratio is 2.7, pricey, but investors will pay up for quality. Has longed like TJX. Heavy share buybacks this year with more to come this year. Best among the discount apparel retailers.
Pretty cautious on consumer names, since we're about mid-late cycle economically. Interest rates coming down might help the consumer. In the consumer space, he'd prefer a name like this. Downshift in spending going on now.