Stock price when the opinion was issued
His theme today is leverage, nice yield, and ability to grow cash. No debt. Trades at 2.5x EBITDA multiple, down from its historic 5x. Services are picking up. Advantaged on the gas side, purest publicly listed frack play in Canada. First Nations issues resolved. LNG Canada could mean a 10% rig pickup. Ultra-clean balance sheet. Nice yield of 1.25%.
(Analysts’ price target is $5.53)TCW has an impressive shareholder yield, with a dividend yield of 1.7%, a buyback yield of 10.8%, and a debt paydown yield of 3.4%. The company is a $971M company with a forward earnings multiple of 8.1X, a low debt profile, growing margins, and great free cash flows, but it does operate in a cyclical industry. Although the company's balance sheet has shrunk since 2018, its share count has also diminished significantly since that timeframe. If an investor has an optimistic outlook on the price of oil and the energy market, we would feel comfortable with the solid execution and fundamentals of this company.
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Canada is materially undersupplied for pressure pumping demand. Pricing will continue to go up, and yet these stocks are selling off in the belief that while crude oil has checked back, companies are losing pricing power. That is not correct. This company can cash flow $300 million next year. Where the stock price is trading at, it is discounting by about $150 million of cash flow next year, not $300 million. If he is correct, there is 75%-100% upside in the stock. A stock price of $6-$7 is not unreasonable. (Analysts’ price target is $5.88.)