Robert Lauzon Twin Butte Energy TBE-T DON'T BUY Jul 30, 2015

If you look at the numbers, it looks like the dividend is sustainable because the payout ratio is less than 100%. This is one that has been proven, but it still needs to rationalize that asset base a little bit. She would like to see that happen before she took a closer look at it. In the years to come, they are going to have to prove that they have a real turnaround possibility to get investors interested again. Not a story to be in in this environment. Dividend yield of 16% should be cut.

She no longer owns it. She would be cautious of it. Issues with their assets being too thinly, too rationalized. Investors have shied away from too much. Doesn't support their dividend long term.

A medium-heavy gravity producer. Got into trouble last year with some high declines at their heavy oil property, and have shifted more of their emphasis to the medium gravity side of things. There are other names that he would recommend.

Sold his holdings in the last 6-12 months because he was worried about the sustainability. Likes management and some of the assets, but it is just a very small boat in a big see of issues with oil prices.

He knew this company when it transitioned into a dividend paying entity, back when that was in vogue to get a higher re-rate in terms of the valuation multiple. This is a higher cost heavy oil producer. In this downturn, it has exasperated a lot of problems in terms of the sustainability of the dividend, and put an enormous amount of balance sheet stress on the company. Their credit facility is around $275 million, and got cut back to around $225 million. There is apparently a non-revolving component of that of about $85 million that comes due at the end of April. They have about 6 weeks to figure out how they are going to pay back about $60-$70 million. They have to sell the company or sell assets.

When a company falls like this one, his experience has been that you just tear the Band-Aid off. You have to ask yourself what is the energy environment today and what are the companies that are doing well. This is pure heavy oil in Western Canada. Depending on the new normal commodity price, heavy oil might just come out too low.

Probably a good tax loss candidate, but at $.07 maybe you just hang onto it. The downside is 100% and your upside is limited. He would suggest that bankruptcy is not far off. Not a name he would hold.

This is going to be a bankruptcy, so if you own he would Sell immediately. It is not going to come back. They’ve been trying to negotiate with their lenders.

At this point, you just try to blow this out and forget it. They have stumbled over the years with a litany of operational mistakes. When the commodity price collapsed, debt got them.