Southern Pacific Resource (STP.TO) Buy, Sell…

Southern Pacific Resource (STP.TO)

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COMMENT

Has fallen because of the price of oil. Debt is high but is manageable. Proven plus probable reserve value is $3 at $100 long-term oil. Next project is steam assisted. Very cheap stock but is waiting until it is a no-brainer.

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BUY

Oil sands company. If you believe in $100 oil, the NAV is about $3 on their proven plus probable giving you about 600 million barrels of contingent resource which are much higher risk. $3 gives you a little less than a double. Debt is a little high but is fully funded and could be a takeout.

BUY

One of a handful of successful oil sand companies on the cusp of really ramping up. Have a small project of 4-5 thousand BOE’s a day with a plan to go to 40,000 in the next 4 years.

DON'T BUY

Oil sands Senlac project looks good but the McKay project is really their big one but the problem is how to fund it, which they are trying to do with a debt issue. Will be about 2 years before production.

BUY

Once they bring their heavy oil project (McKay) into production, it’ll get revalued.

HOLD

Could be a takeover candidate in the next 12-24 months. Could be eventful as they go through their permitting and financing in the next few months and think this could be positive.

DON'T BUY

Shorted this but exited his position. Has been building their oil sands business piece by piece and doing a good job. Highly levered to oil prices, so if oil comes down they could be in trouble.

SELL

Not been a fan of junior oil sands plays because it is such a scale business but this one has emerged as one of the better companies. However he is not a fan of oil at these prices. (He is Short the stock.)

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HOLD

Acquiring existing oil sands property and when they can bring it online and on budget, there is a lot more upside, possibly 50% more.

BUY

Heavy oil in Alberta. Have cash flow and are quire reasonably valued. Production has potential to ramp up significantly over the next 2 to 3 years.

STRONG BUY

Beautifully well run. Oil sands. Need to raise money but doing it at a good time.

COMMENT

Biggest IPO in many years in the oil sands will be happening Wednesday with the Athabascan oil sands. A lot of the other ancillary oil sands companies have been running up on this and this is one of them.

HOLD

In the junior oil sands space, it comes down to Connacher (CLL-T) with this one probably becoming the next junior emerging oil sands player. Recently saw an article on India trying to purchase something in the oil sands, such as 10,000 BOE’s a day with a billion-market cap sort of price. This fits Connacher.

HOLD

Oil sands. Putting together their permit application and when that gets approved, about 1 year, there should be a revaluation of the stock. That's when these things are acquired.

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Southern Pacific Resource (STP.TO)