Opinions
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
SPY-N
COMMENT
Apr 02, 2020
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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He did a put spread on May 2, the 500-520 end of July put spread. He wasn't concerned about NVDA or tech, but to the market's reaction broadly to Nividia's earnings. Rally broadening in the S&P had not happened. You're limiting your downside with a spread. He bought back the 500 put, which leads him long only the 599 outs.
Premium contentThe SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY) is a well-established exchange-traded fund that seeks to provide investment results that, before expenses, generally correspond to the price and yield performance of the S&P 500 Index. The ETF holds a wide array of stocks, providing broad exposure to the U.S. large-cap equity market. Established by State Street Global Advisors, SPY is a popular investment vehicle among individual and institutional investors due to its diversification, liquidity, and historical performance. Social media mentions are up 4% in the past 24h.
Major concern about this one is that it's really a technology ETF, given that 8 or 9 of the top 10 names are tech names. 40% of the S&P 500 is tech or tech-oriented, and we've never before seen this concentration. That's quite a bit of risk with so much exposure to one sector. Index is not as safe as it was 10 years ago.
Technology in this new world is exciting, but it's not cheap. Though earnings growth is very strong, how far will we let PE's go before we say they're too expensive?
Why would both go on on the same day? The VIX (VXX-N) tracks the expectation of volatility over the next month. Volatility changes. If the market (SPY-N) is going up then typically volatility comes down. If the catalyst for a rally is thought to be short lived, then volatility can go up as well.