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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY-N COMMENT Apr 02, 2020

Why would both go on on the same day? The VIX (VXX-N) tracks the expectation of volatility over the next month. Volatility changes. If the market (SPY-N) is going up then typically volatility comes down. If the catalyst for a rally is thought to be short lived, then volatility can go up as well.

Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA

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TOP PICK

Largest ETF in the world tracking the S&P 500 index. Social media mentions are up 278% for the past 24h suggesting an optimistic popular outlook for the S&P 500 in 2022.

BUY

Today's session (a knee jerk bounce after Biden announced oil sanctions against Russia) signalled to her that if we get even a whiff of good news, that we'll see a giant rally. We're hungry for any kind of good news (out of Russia/Ukraine). She bought some SPY calls at the day's end.... If peace were announced tomorrow, she could see crude oil sliding by at least $25/barrel.

DON'T BUY

Not his favourite place to be. The Canadian market is better on a seasonal basis. Be careful of timing and wait for corrections.

DON'T BUY

She is handpicking stocks in this bear market. Choose individual stocks. It's hard work--read the reports and listen to the calls, but it pays off. Don't buy the SPY, but would own the stocks in that ETF.

COMMENT

put buying SPY put buys: 30,000 of the July 377 puts, and 100,000 of the June 345 puts, and 18,000 of the July 22 expiring 385 puts. This action may not be over just yet, because there's still a lot of buying.

BUY

It's been beaten down, but healthcare will do well.

BUY

SPY vs. QQQ

SPY is more diversified than QQQ, which is mainly technology, biotech, and some consumer names. SPY is 26% technology, 8% communications. Tech sector has gotten ahead of itself again, and the valuations are not that attractive.

BUY

He just bought May 500 puts. In the two days since the Fed meeting, the USD has strengthened against many currencies (Euro, Yen, UK pound, Chinese yuan). Ripples in the currency market will lead to a slight pullback in the S&P.

BUY

He did a put spread on May 2, the 500-520 end of July put spread. He wasn't concerned about NVDA or tech, but to the market's reaction broadly to Nividia's earnings. Rally broadening in the S&P had not happened. You're limiting your downside with a spread. He bought back the 500 put, which leads him long only the 599 outs.

BUY

SPY is the oldest and the biggest. Buy more, hold forever. Starting to be overtaken by VOO, perhaps because of the slight difference in MER cost. Worthwhile contacting the ETF company itself for a tax opinion on which account is best to hold it in.

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Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA SPDR S&P 500 ETF SPY-N COMMENT Apr 02, 2020

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