The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research)Simon Property Group Inc.SPGTOP PICKAug 13, 2020

Has traded this in the past. Has one of the best charts in the market. No parabolic move, but steadily grinds higher. RSI is 64, not yet overbought. Use $187 if trading, and $180 if investing. 

Has some exposure to tariffs, but is a terrific company. Pays a 5.7% dividend.

Owns shares in portfolio. Many premium properties throughout Canada. High end of the retail leasing market. Would buy more shares any time share price falls. 

This high dividend-payer of 4.9% will benefit from lower interest rates. Was sideways until Aug. 5; has rallied 13% since reporting beats on Aug. 5. Malls are dead? No--SPG golds high-end malls and their occupancy rate is 95.6%. Net operating income is up 4.5% YOY.

Would consider buying this as well as Tanger and Federal Realty as interest rates eventually are cut and to diversify a portfolio.

Largest class A, enclosed mall operator in the US. Great outlet centre business, plus investments abroad. "A" malls have shown resilience, defying predictions for the sector. Class A will continue to thrive. Great job securing higher-end tenants.

It reports Monday. A huge owner of malls. Watch their report for the state of malls real estate. He expects a good quarter, and they will continue to pay good dividends.

They own the best-quality malls. Shares rebounded in late 2021 to pre-Covid levels, but have struggled since. Their 6.8% dividend yield is less attractive amid high interest rates. But its just-released quarter revived shares. They delivered a big revenue beat of 7.2% YOY, funds from operation also beat, and had a super 92% occupancy rate. Minimum rents were 3% YOY. They raised their earnings forecast. Also, their Sparc operation will partner with fast fashion company, Shein, to expand their online marketplace to Forever 21 stores. Goldman Sachs expects malls and retail to expand next year as more people shore in stores.

A great CEO and it has paid $33 billion in dividends (at 6%)

SPG is now trading at 17.5x times' Forward P/E. 
The company’s revenue was hit quite hard during the pandemic and SPG’s revenue and EBIT in the trailing twelve-month did not recover to 2019’s levels. 
The balance sheet is quite leveraged like other REITs, with net debt of $24.8B. 
Total debt is around 6.5x times trailing twelve-month cash flow of $3.8B, and cash flow grew slightly around 3% compared to $3.6B last year. 
Based on consensus estimates, sales are expected to grow by 2% - 3% on average going forward.The company has been resilient and managed to pay predictable dividends. 
Although the dividend yield looks attractive and would likely be sustainable in the near term, the potential of consistently increasing dividends in a foreseeable future and long-term capital appreciation is not high. 
The business’s growth outlook is not impressive, and SPG may face potential headwinds for growth due to the transition to e-commerce.
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They're a long-duration asset. He models $91.42, 17% lower than today. Wait for $87 to enter. Why buy stocks when you can get a 5% GIC in Canada?

It reports Monday. Can America's largest mall REIT cut it? Maybe. They're smart guys. Definitely listen to their conference call.