Simon Property Group Inc.SPGTOP PICKJul 09, 2013Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 05, 2026. Market Open.
They own the best-quality malls. Shares rebounded in late 2021 to pre-Covid levels, but have struggled since. Their 6.8% dividend yield is less attractive amid high interest rates. But its just-released quarter revived shares. They delivered a big revenue beat of 7.2% YOY, funds from operation also beat, and had a super 92% occupancy rate. Minimum rents were 3% YOY. They raised their earnings forecast. Also, their Sparc operation will partner with fast fashion company, Shein, to expand their online marketplace to Forever 21 stores. Goldman Sachs expects malls and retail to expand next year as more people shore in stores.
SPG is now trading at 17.5x times' Forward P/E.
The company’s revenue was hit quite hard during the pandemic and SPG’s revenue and EBIT in the trailing twelve-month did not recover to 2019’s levels.
The balance sheet is quite leveraged like other REITs, with net debt of $24.8B.
Total debt is around 6.5x times trailing twelve-month cash flow of $3.8B, and cash flow grew slightly around 3% compared to $3.6B last year.
Based on consensus estimates, sales are expected to grow by 2% - 3% on average going forward.The company has been resilient and managed to pay predictable dividends.
Although the dividend yield looks attractive and would likely be sustainable in the near term, the potential of consistently increasing dividends in a foreseeable future and long-term capital appreciation is not high.
The business’s growth outlook is not impressive, and SPG may face potential headwinds for growth due to the transition to e-commerce.
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This is sitting at about a 10% discount to NAV. Historically has not traded at that kind of level. A world-class REIT. Shopping malls, predominantly in the US, but also in Asia and Europe. Have a 30% interest in a European REIT called Kleppierre. These are high quality malls that are operating anywhere from $500-$600 per square foot in terms of sales. They have seen 8% increase on average in the last 6 quarters in a sales per square foot number, which means consumers are starting to spend a little in the US and are heading to the high quality malls. 2.8% yield but free cash flow yield is in the double digits. Very low payout ratio.