Stockchase Opinions

Mason Granger Strategic Oil & Gas Ltd SOG-X SELL Jun 24, 2014

This company really dropped the ball and has very little credibility. Sell and move on. Overspent and then increased debt levels so had to refinance. Don’t put money with a management team that does stuff like this.

$0.445

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oil gas
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BUY

They have a concentrated asset base. Expects some positive news this summer. Done a great job of proving up this resource. Has invested in them in the past.

STRONG BUY

Thinks there is a significant upside in their Steam River asset, a light oil property they have been working on. Has been a slight change in management over the last year, which is probably good. The market is looking for significant production growth. $0.20-$0.24 a share cash flow is probably going to be light. He can see this as a potential double.

DON'T BUY

CEO is new to capital markets. Thinks he made a small error of being mildly aggressive in his forecasts for tight wells in one of their plays. Released information that did not exceed their type curve (?) so had a pretty dramatic selloff from about $1.35 to about $.90. It is probably overdone now. Have done a very good job of amassing a very contiguous acreage position in northern Alberta and have had good drilling success. It will take time for the CEO to get out of the penalty box and this is a very unforgiving market.

BUY

Very attractive at current levels. They own a very large land base in Steen River, which has multi-zone opportunities so she feels the resource upside is very significant. Management has done a lot of right things to lock up the land space infrastructure and they brought in a good CEO. Disappointed shareholders in Q1, reporting about 2000 barrels while expectations where for 3000. Expects they will hit guidance towards the end of the year.

COMMENT

Has a great asset base and is executing all right. This would be on his short list of companies he would buy in this space, but he just doesn’t go this low at the moment.

WATCH

Likes this name quite well. Over the last 2-3 quarters, they have disappointed in terms of guidance. Very large land base and have only started putting pieces together. Over the longer-term, if execution turns out well, the stock will be rewarded with higher valuations. She is on the sideline and just watching their execution to see if management can deliver. (Host comment: Street consensus is that the stock will be $1.63 in the next 12 months.)

DON'T BUY

Was bullish at 60 to 80 cents and then sold. Management team missed expectations a couple of quarters ago and he does not put up with this.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute) Totally avoid it. Management team failed miserably to deliver the results they promised and the debt to cash flow ratio is way too high.

COMMENT

Has been really hurt by the execution of this very difficult play they are in. Company is going through some high costs, to make sure this very extreme area in northern Alberta, is all pipelined in. There are good reasons why two very, very good, smart, rich people have got ownership of this company. He is very tempted.