Stock price when the opinion was issued
Thinks there is a significant upside in their Steam River asset, a light oil property they have been working on. Has been a slight change in management over the last year, which is probably good. The market is looking for significant production growth. $0.20-$0.24 a share cash flow is probably going to be light. He can see this as a potential double.
Very attractive at current levels. They own a very large land base in Steen River, which has multi-zone opportunities so she feels the resource upside is very significant. Management has done a lot of right things to lock up the land space infrastructure and they brought in a good CEO. Disappointed shareholders in Q1, reporting about 2000 barrels while expectations where for 3000. Expects they will hit guidance towards the end of the year.
Likes this name quite well. Over the last 2-3 quarters, they have disappointed in terms of guidance. Very large land base and have only started putting pieces together. Over the longer-term, if execution turns out well, the stock will be rewarded with higher valuations. She is on the sideline and just watching their execution to see if management can deliver. (Host comment: Street consensus is that the stock will be $1.63 in the next 12 months.)
Has been really hurt by the execution of this very difficult play they are in. Company is going through some high costs, to make sure this very extreme area in northern Alberta, is all pipelined in. There are good reasons why two very, very good, smart, rich people have got ownership of this company. He is very tempted.
CEO is new to capital markets. Thinks he made a small error of being mildly aggressive in his forecasts for tight wells in one of their plays. Released information that did not exceed their type curve (?) so had a pretty dramatic selloff from about $1.35 to about $.90. It is probably overdone now. Have done a very good job of amassing a very contiguous acreage position in northern Alberta and have had good drilling success. It will take time for the CEO to get out of the penalty box and this is a very unforgiving market.