Stockchase Opinions

Don Lato Sears Holdings Corp. SHLD-Q TOP PICK Dec 08, 2010

Would not normally be a stock he would be interested in but they continually shrink the float. 4 years ago there were 155 million share outstanding and now there is 110 million. Great brands and good underlying real estate assets.
$68.130

Stock price when the opinion was issued

department stores
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TOP PICK
Company is worth about $7 billion and generates over $40 billion in annual revenues. There are also hidden real estate values. Risk/reward is for a favourable given the low price that is being paid.
DON'T BUY
Stock scares him a lot because the man that holds and runs it has been systematically destroying the Sears brand/stores in the US for some time by not reinvesting in the product. Highly speculative.
BUY
Stock has dropped by about 50% since May. Should recover. Not the best operator, but underlying assets of real estate and brands leave a lot of potential for the gap between current share price and assets to narrow.
PAST TOP PICK
(Top Pick May 11/09, Up 28%) Controversial name. Thinks they can earn enough money to justify valuation. Has been buying more and more stock back.
SELL
(Market Call Minute.) Losing market share. Same store sales growth is going ballistic on the downside.
COMMENT
For a 3-5 year time horizon? Doesn't even cross his screen. Way too expensive for him. He doesn't use time horizons, but sets target prices instead.
TOP PICK

This is a play on Eddie Lampert, chairman and CEO and their biggest shareholder. Between his hedge fund and personal holdings, he owns 55% of this company. This is a value realization story. As we’ve seen some of the selling of real estate assets in Canada and dividing up $500 million, most of which is going to go to Sears Holding in the US. They have a lot more real estate in the US that they can do the same with. There is a 30% Short position in the stock. High risk, but potentially very high reward.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 27/13. Down 27.47%.) Probably the most speculative holding that he holds in his portfolios. The question is, is this company going to run out of cash before it is able to capitalize on the underlying value of its assets, which he thinks are still very, very significant. There is a huge Short position on it.

DON'T BUY

You have the Amazon effect. They are owned by a hedge fund. He would not touch it. There is overcapacity in the retail space.