Charles Schwab CorpSCHWDON'T BUYMar 31, 2023Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
Previously caught up in regional bank concerns, and now interest rates coming down not necessarily good (less $$ earned on the float kept for customers). Can't win. Great platform, makes a lot of money, so no worries about the company. Trading volume has probably slowed a bit. Well run. He's not interested.
He's been recommending this since last year's regional bank crisis when Schwab got caught in the crosshairs. It's a premier brokerage house with an amazing franchise. It was insane that shares nearly plunged in half. Last Monday, they reported a great quarter which sent shares 5% higher as the averages sank. Reported top and bottom line beats and added 1 million new accounts in Q1.
TD still owns 9.8% of SCHW. While we are not too worried about a 'bank run' on Schwab, there is definitely a shift from low interest accounts to money market accounts, with estimates of $20B a month moving.
Customers are staying, but this shift is likely to impact earnings.
The company also bought long term bonds and has significant unrealized losses. So, it is a question of what happens next.
On paper it looks fine, at 13X earnings, a good dividend and historical earnings growth. But EPS could be impacted by 30%, and that is before any decision to take a loss on the bond portfolio. Actual outflows have still been more than $1B a day, and in such cases investors and depositors cannot be counted on to act rationally.
A bad headline could accelerate the situation. Brokers are falling over themselves to downgrade, and the stock has had its worst month since 1987. The CEO comments help, and there has been insider buying at least. But we can't really add depth.
Either confidence returns, or it doesn't. In the latter, the company gets into an ugly situation of having to sell securities at a loss to backstop capital, and this can be a downward spiral. It is hard to really endorse it considered extreme uncertainty.
Especially compared with safer Canadian banks with higher dividends and lower valuations.
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