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Transalta RenewablesRNW.TOCOMMENTNov 03, 2017Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 10, 2023. Market Open.
RNW is a yield proxy, and those have fallen, with decent yield and nice EPS growth. Parent company is taking it over, pending approval. The real question is what do you do with TA? Transaction looks slightly dilutive. Long term, bigger flow in a simplified structure, which could lead to a higher valuation.
Backdrop for TA is really supportive, solid balance sheet, compelling free cashflow yield of 15%. Could be synergies. He likes TA post-closing.
A yield company, and they've all been hurt by interest rate increases. Looked like it had really good growth until December, when growth impetus shifted to the parent, TA. Good 7.5% dividend, especially if rates don't go up as much. Quite cheap at 15x, still decent growth rate. More value in TA, but RNW is still good.
However its cash-available-for-distribution outlook was down 9.5%. Shares immediately plunged 15% from $14.35, and have more or less hovered around $12 this year. Sure, RNW pays a 7.88% dividend, but at a nosebleed 335.7% payout ratio. Maybe a nimble trader can jump in and out of this and gain a few dollars, but all others should avoid. Read Budget winners for our full analysis.
Doesn't see a lot of growth on this. Fairly cheap at 16X, versus its 21X versus its five-year average. 70% payout ratio on 2018 on a free cash flow basis. Probably not a bad value at these levels, but not a lot of growth going forward.