Daily Stock Opinions and Ratings

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Bill Harris, CFA Repsol YPF , SA REPYY-5 BUY Aug 25, 2005

One of the most inexpensive oil companies in the world. Probably getting close to fair value. Where the leverage really kicks in is if the refinery game takes over. If the refining margins can consistently go to $10, it is a 3 to 1 crack spread, their earnings will double. The stock could go to the high $30's.

Bill Harris, CFA

Owned

Unlock Rating

$29.010

Stock price when the opinion was issued

integrated oils

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top PIck Sept 13/05. Down 2.25%.) Actually got up tp $35. Thinks that this refinery story is starting to play out. The next couple of years will see a real tightening in global refining and this is the real upside for them. Can see $40 in a couple of years.

BUY

One of the cheaper oil companies out there right now.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Nov 2/05. Up 4%.) One of the problesm with the oil industry is that there is not enough capacity in refining.

TOP PICK

At large part of their business is refining. You can have as much oil as you want, but you have to refine it into gasoline. This is a bottleneck. It is difficult to build new refineries because of environmental issues and costs.

TRADE

Doesn't think the worst is over. Very vague, and may not have been talking about this particular stock. May have been talking about oil in general.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Jan 9/06. Down 9%.) Sold his holdings when they came out with a reduction of 25% rather than 10% in their reserves. Also didn't like the areas where they were going to try to increase their reserves.

DON'T BUY

Very cheap assets. Took a reserve write-down and they were hit in the South American write off. He was hoping for a positive outcome but couldn't get the answer is he was looking for so they sold their holdings.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Aug 12/05. Down 3.6%.) Previous quarter's numbers showed they had missed estimates but also, their reserves are in unsettled countries so he sold his holdings.

PAST TOP PICK

Decreased since it was his top pick. Doesn't own it anymore. It's a good company, great refining capacity. Reserves where coming down which is why he sold it. He may re-enter in the low $20s.

COMMENT

It is hard for him to get really excited about any of the integrated oil companies, although he does own Total (TOT-N) more because of its strong downstream.

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Bill Harris, CFA Repsol YPF , SA REPYY-5 BUY Aug 25, 2005

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