Stockchase Opinions

Michele Robitaille RioCan Real Estate Investment REI.UN-T BUY Jun 22, 2015

She likes it. They have a lot of good opportunities through redevelopment of their sites. There are organic growth opportunities as well. Payout ratio is good and they will be able to combat this rising rate environment well.

$27.050

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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DON'T BUY

It's in the most hated sector (office real estate and malls), given low occupancy rates in cities like Toronto and competition from Amazon. Also, Riocan carries a lot of debt. Debt is rising; rents are falling. Don't touch it.

DON'T BUY

Biggest proxy for the Canadian REIT market. Great assets, executes well. Over time, their strategic decisions get sideswiped. Occupancy issues, but they're improving. Dynamic for retail is not great, AMZN stole many lunches. Canadian consumer is tapped out, interest rates still high. 

You'll probably be OK, but he'd buy a couple of names ahead of this one. He owns SRU.UN instead, anchored by WMT.

BUY

Distribution very safe due to proactive cutting during pandemic. Achievable net operating growth of 3%, last quarter was 3.7%. Despite rising rates, with population growth, limited new supply, and limited retail bankruptcies, setup generally good for shopping centres in Canada. In a good spot.

BUY

Blue chip in shopping centre space. Growing footprint in residential. Will benefit from capital coming in to pay down debt. Internal growth is 3-4%. Good one to own going forward. Nice yield of 6%.

DON'T BUY

Exposed to rising interest rate payments on debt used to buy properties. Good yield is in competition with no-risk bonds. In the space he owns CAR.UN instead, which is multi-family housing.

SELL ON STRENGTH

Short term, he's constructive, likely more upside, a yield beneficiary. Medium term, might be one of the largest REITs in Canada, but one one of the smaller investors compared to pension plans, for example. Buying and developing assets is complex, expensive, and fraught with uncertainty. Fragile profile, despite good yield and recent rally.

HOLD

Concerns over exposure to condo market. Great portfolio, quite defensive. He's bullish on outdoor shopping centre landscape across Canada, with low supply and increasing demand from population growth. Great management. You're well served by holding on.

BUY

Attractive level, high double-digit discount to NAV. Great portfolio. Multi-family residential portfolio is growing, may start selling it off and reallocating capital to retail or to share buybacks. Overhang: $600M worth of condos closing in next 3 years. Risk/reward is in your favour to buy here.

TOP PICK

Value pick given current share price. Company beginning to find its way again. Returning back to core strengths of the business. Focus on urban centers very good idea. Management team is performing well. 

HOLD

Still a REIT giant. Leads in the retail-focused, mixed-property use. Definitely impacted by The Bay situation. Retail weakness over next 6-12 months could be an issue.

Saw 96% retail occupancy in Q4, and 1.5% rental growth. Pressure from e-commerce. Issued debt in January to bolster balance sheet, debt is still manageable. Rate cuts could continue to spark leasing demand. Yield is 6%, cash machine for income lovers. Still reliable.