Stockchase Opinions

Michael Sprung Prime West Energy Trust PWI.UN-T DON'T BUY Jul 13, 2007

Merged with Shiningbank Energy (SHN.UN-T). Not particularly a great deal and doesn't represent a significant improvement to Primewest at this point. 13% yield.
$23.100

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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HOLD
Just announced a merger with Shiningbank (SHN.UN-T).
COMMENT
Merging with Shiningbank (SHN.UN-T). This will be an extremely large, gas focused trust. This will give them better economies of scale. Management team is very strong.
COMMENT
You will start to see a lot of these companies struggle.
COMMENT
No longer own. In evaluating energy income trusts, they ask, what are their reserves, how successful the company and management has been at finding and replacing those reserves, what is the quality of the balance sheet, ie does the company have the ability to survive a downdraft in the future.Likes to see a production profile that's increasing.
COMMENT
3 gas-weighted companies that he feels will cut distributions are Trilogy (TET.UN-T), Advantage Energy (AVN.UN-T) and Prime West (PWI.UN-T).
WEAK BUY
Acquired Shiningbank (SHN.UN-T). Yields are approaching 14%. Wonders about production profile going forward but the acquisition should help. If you are confident on natural gas prices remaining solid, it could be okay. Risk/reward is weak.
COMMENT
Abu Dhabi National Energy is acquiring this company, which is a positive. Other trusts could also be targeted. 2 of his favourites Focus Energy (FET.UN-T) and Progress Energy (PGX.UN-T) are possibilities.
SELL
Has been the subject of her recent takeover from Abu Dhabi’s Taqa. It is almost trading at the deal price. Holding it for the next couple of months will give you a limited distribution. There is a slight bit of deal risk because of Alberta’s royalty review. He suggests you take your profits and run.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
You have to have a 3-year view on this. He would prefer it at $30. Likelihood of increasing dividends.