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Opinions Dennis da Silva
Painted Pony EnergyPONY.TOCOMMENTMay 31, 2016
Dennis da SilvaOwned
$7.26
Stock price when the opinion was issued
$0.69
As of Oct 08, 2020. Market Open.
oilgas
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DON'T BUY
He is bullish on Albertan-based natural gas because we have declining production and supply, increased take away capacity and inventories are at a 10 year low. The winter will eventually come and then there is the prospect of depleting storage. A lot of Nat gas companies have hedged away their Alberta gas exposure. Pony still leaves him a little uncomfortable, however. He likes BRK-T, TOU-T and ARX-T. The balance sheet of PONY-T leaves him pause.
oilgas
BUY
They have significant assets in the core area that will benefit from LNG. They had a tough second quarter and production came in because they shut in some production. The fourth quarter is going to be good. He thinks they can buy down debt next year. It is a higher beta stock and not owned by institutions. They could be a takeover candidate 3 or 4 years down the road.
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BUY
Results are not out yet because of a pipeline issue on the West Coast of BC. He thinks their volumes will pick up again as the pipeline issues are resolved. It is a very cheap stock at one and a half times cash flow. We need LNG takeaway capacity on the west coast, which will benefit them in 2024. We are probably going to have the lowest storage levels in a long time in North America due to cold weather. And Canadian Nat Gas prices are above $3 right now. It looks like cold weather will go on a little longer.
oilgas
One of the highest growth names you will find this year and into 2017. They are in the Northeast BC Montney fairway. This is a story of building facilities and filling them. Going to go from about 16,000 barrels of oil equivalent to 40,000 by year end, because the plant is going to be on stream. It is on time and relatively on budget. They will then look for the next phase, which ultimately could be 60,000-70,000 barrels by the end of next year. Well hedged for this year. Expects they will be self-sustaining as they get towards the 2nd half of 2017. Will probably be adding a little more to his holdings.