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Opinions Eric Nuttall
Painted Pony EnergyPONY.TOCOMMENTDec 31, 2015
Eric NuttallOwned
$3.48
Stock price when the opinion was issued
$0.69
As of Oct 08, 2020. Market Open.
oilgas
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DON'T BUY
He is bullish on Albertan-based natural gas because we have declining production and supply, increased take away capacity and inventories are at a 10 year low. The winter will eventually come and then there is the prospect of depleting storage. A lot of Nat gas companies have hedged away their Alberta gas exposure. Pony still leaves him a little uncomfortable, however. He likes BRK-T, TOU-T and ARX-T. The balance sheet of PONY-T leaves him pause.
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BUY
They have significant assets in the core area that will benefit from LNG. They had a tough second quarter and production came in because they shut in some production. The fourth quarter is going to be good. He thinks they can buy down debt next year. It is a higher beta stock and not owned by institutions. They could be a takeover candidate 3 or 4 years down the road.
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BUY
Results are not out yet because of a pipeline issue on the West Coast of BC. He thinks their volumes will pick up again as the pipeline issues are resolved. It is a very cheap stock at one and a half times cash flow. We need LNG takeaway capacity on the west coast, which will benefit them in 2024. We are probably going to have the lowest storage levels in a long time in North America due to cold weather. And Canadian Nat Gas prices are above $3 right now. It looks like cold weather will go on a little longer.
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Up until the end of 2016, they sell a lot of their natural gas through an area called Station 2. This is a hub where there has been a huge increase in gas production, so there are times when Station 2 was below $1. That has recovered somewhat, but is still weak. Fortunately they have 43% hedged next year at $3. Has a deal with Altagas (ALA-T), where Altagas now owns 75%. They are helping to fund the plant that will increase take away capacity. In his mind this could be a $4-$5 stock next year. Not a long-term trade in his mind.