Opinions
Peter Imhof
Parkland Fuel Corp
PKI-T
BUY
Dec 21, 2017
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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Should work regardless of tariffs. It's being pushed to unlock value. A few $$ to be earned from low-hanging fruit. Market sees EPS growing 15% over next 2 years, trading at 9x. Idiosyncratic name, not tethered to news headlines, with a nice dividend. Yield is 3.8%.
(Analysts’ price target is $48.70)A big shareholder is agitating for change, wanting management to enhance value. World-class assets. It's cheap. Refining margins have been coming in and general malaise in economy may explain share price. Very undervalued and value will be realized somehow. Debt, but a lot of FCF. Yield is 3.96%.
(Analysts’ price target is $47.91)The controlling shareholder wants to sell the gas stations and keep the refineries where the margins are higher and sit on lots of real estate. He doesn't own the shares, but the bonds which pay 6% during falling interest rates. Not investment-grade bonds, so the leverage is high.
Bowing to pressure, the CEO has stepped down, adding to uncertainty. The company also lowered guidance, which is not overly surprising, really, considering the economic situation unfolding. The CEO change should appease Simpson and other funds somewhat, but likely only a bit. There is still a strategic review ongoing. Certainly a sale is one possibility. There are a lot of moving parts here. The stock has held up well, likely due to speculation on its future. We would not see it as a great purchase right now, as it would essentially be a 'bet' on a takeover in a very uncertain market, and not really our type of play.
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Not doing as well as ATD on gas stations and growth, so there was pressure to change things up. PKI's credit rating is BB, while Sunoco's is BB High; so if you own, you should probably sell, rather than waiting to see what happens down the road. If deal fails, stock price will fall into low $30s.
Well run for a while, but lost its way. Offer on the table isn't the greatest, as it will be a taxable event. Stock's picked up lately. Doesn't believe there will be a competing offer because it's such a mixed-up company. Appeals only to Sunoco. Tender and move on. Look at ATD instead.
For now, we would HOLD but we think it may have reduced upside in the mid-term as the companies integrate. Depending on the reaction to the stock this week and in the next few weeks, we can see it as a source of cash for other ideas as they emerge.
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He started purchasing about 2.5 months ago. It is a mini ATD.B-T. It had come off for no apparent reason. They have some very good growth ahead of them and he started buying it early. It is not cheap but they have very good growth over the next few years. They will probably raise the dividend. People are unsure of the impact of a refinery that they had to take over. Will they be able to get it up and running? They are going to use most of the people that used to run it, so it should go okay.