Daily Stock Opinions and Ratings

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Michael Sprung Pengrowth Energy Trust (B) PGF.B-T PAST TOP PICK Jul 18, 2006

(A Top Pick Mar 23/06. Up 17%.) Looking to consolidate the A and B shares to make it one class.

Michael Sprung

Owned

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$27.110

Stock price when the opinion was issued

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DON'T BUY

The class structure is being dissolved. They have done a pretty good job over the last year of cleaning up some of their problems. Owns some in an index fund, only because he has to. Prefers others. Reserve life of about 11 years. Payout ratio is a little high.

COMMENT

As other trusts were running down their payout ratios, this one continued to pay on a relatively high level and relied on acquisitions to replace production. That model doesn't work any more. They are now changing. From a fundamental basis, they are improving.

BUY

In terms of some of the oil/gas trusts, it is timely to be looking at them right now. Check the yield and cash flows that are being generated.

WEAK BUY

This is a company that knows how to deal with replacing reserves. Very good management. This is one of a few income trusts that he would consider holding through the next period.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Recently sold his position. Payout ratio has come down to about 70% and hired a new management team that have strong technical skills. Recently acquired Esprit, which was good, but paid a full price for it. Will buy on weakness.

HOLD

Starting to look at it a little bit closer now. Seems to be turning around. Debt and payout ratio is a little bit higher than he likes. As this gets corrected, it may be one that he would add.

BUY

This company has had a long, long history of managing and income trust, so you have to like management. His fair market value is about double what the stock is trading at.

HOLD

With the whole trust area collapse, we are getting back to fundamentals. Outlook for this company is quite strong. There is a good seasonal play in a lot of the oil/gas trusts. Fairly cheap.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick April 21/06. Sold at a loss of about $4.) Converted to Pengrowth (PGF.UN-T) and he would not buy this on.

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Michael Sprung Pengrowth Energy Trust (B) PGF.B-T PAST TOP PICK Jul 18, 2006

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