Stockchase Opinions

Gordon Reid Procter & Gamble PG-N DON'T BUY Oct 04, 2013

Procter & Gamble (PG-N) or diversify with an ETF? In a lot of ways, mutual funds or ETFs are intended to give you diversification with smaller amounts of money and low costs. Until you build up a portfolio of some size, and can diversify in terms of numbers of positions, he would probably go with ETFs or mutual funds. Regarding Procter & Gamble, this kind of stock has befuddled him. In the last 6-8 months, these kinds of stocks are coming down in price because they were pushing up against their higher end on an evaluation basis.

$76.020

Stock price when the opinion was issued

misc consumer products
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HOLD

Very stable, reliable earnings. Decent, but not fantastic, growth. About 7% earnings growth forecast for next little while, but you're paying 23-24x PE. 

OK if you think a recession is around the corner. He doesn't, so he'd favour COST and WMT for continued mid-cycle economic growth. 

SELL

They report Friday. Last quarter, their China numbers were terrible and he doubts they can turn it around so quickly. He sold it this week.

HOLD

Trades at 24x forward PE at only 1% organic growth. She's surprised they raised prices again, though they have pricing power, but at some point it will hurt volumes.

TRADE

Eventually as they keep raising prices (since Covid), volumes will do gown. He wrote a $175 call against this, expiring in 7 days.

BUY

They beat on the topline, but missed the bottom, because China was -15%, though it was expected. Organic sales were fine and reiterated guidance. Trades at a too-pricey 24x forward. He doesn't like staples, but continues to like this.

BUY

A dividend play for 2025 at 2.38%. Not sexy, but consistently generates earnings, free cash flow, and each year grows its dividend. Offers growth wealth generation over time.

DON'T BUY

It reports Wednesday. He fears they might struggle with the strong USD in China

BUY

Is enjoying the rotation out of semis/tech stocks today, up 3.38%. It's been undervalued lately. Has more room to run; he expects the rotation to continue beyond today.

DON'T BUY

It has one of the greatest consumer product lines in the world. A dividend aristocrat that has raised its dividend for 70 years. It yields only a 2.68% dividend yield, falling short of current interest rates and bond yields.

COMMENT

Have suffered from a strong dollar when they return their overseas profits back home, but going forward will benefit from a weaker USD.