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Peyto Exploration & Develop.PEY.TOWEAK BUYOct 15, 2026Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Oct 16, 2026. Market Open.
Is 87% gas and he isn't keen on Canadian has producers--doesn't like the exposure to echo pricing, but management is diversifying away from that. They have a great 20 years of drilling inventory. PEY signed a deal with a UK company for 10 years of supply starting in 2029. This will be linked to European nat gas pricing which is much higher than here. Pays a great 5.9% dividend and at a 7x PE. Not for him.
Probably one of the top names in gas. He'd prefer being more oil-weighted than gas-weighted right now. Gas price will be weaker due to high inventory, and won't benefit from geopolitics in the same way as oil. (When Trump cancelled the MOU 2 weeks ago, the US had only 4 weeks of oil inventory left.)
Canadian investments have been constrained politically. He wouldn't be surprised to see nat gas prices trend lower over the summer. Next 3-5 years should see them higher. The current Canadian PM is anti-energy, but also pragmatic on the need to fund deficits. If the political headwinds disappear in Canada, companies like this one will do extremely well.
If you already have oils in your portfolio, don't buy now. If you share his thesis that the Strait will be challenged with only some traffic going through, then we're probably looking at $80-90 oil. Canadian oil companies are at a massive advantage because we're really trying to expand our markets.
For a 5-year horizon, CNQ looks really good. On the nat gas side, he likes TOU and PEY.
Really great job on its acquisitions. Trades at a modest premium, partly due to the hedging it has in place this year at roughly $4.04. As it pays down debt, expects significant dividend increase (20-25%) in second half of this year. Could potentially acquire part of the CVE package rumoured to be up for sale. Healthy dividend of 5.5%.
Both are higher-torque, higher-beta energy stocks.
She picked up a small position in TOU. Looking at the chart, an opportunity for it to play a bit of catchup. Pretty much flatlined for last couple of years. A story of quality and scale -- bigger inventory, better balance sheet, more flexibility across cycles. Investors trust the name, cost structure, and capital discipline. Plays defensive a bit better in a weak gas market. Multi-cycle compounder. 15-20% upside potential from here. Look to add at these levels.
PEY is a gas price trade, and is already at analysts' target now. An income name. Poised to throw off some cash when gas prices recover. Works best when nat gas prices rise quickly; can downdraft just as fast when prices soften.
What to buy in energy should depend on your outlook for oil vs. natural gas. Oil has more downside if things start getting better in the Middle East. Nat gas has way more upside, so he'd go that way. Names he prefers to BIR are AAV, TOU, and PEY (in that order).