Petrobank Energy and Resources (PBG.TO) Buy,…

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Petrobank Energy and Resources (PBG.TO)

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26 watching

BUY

Model price of $$53.07, a 30% positive differential.

DON'T BUY

Of all the energy names that you could own in Canada there are so many with succulent yields, this one gives you nothing. You get to speculate on a new technology that may not work. Makes no sense.

DON'T BUY

An unusual situation. Having some operational problems with their Thai technology. If they are successful, it’s a home run. A lot of valuation is dependent on this process. Also have a large stake in Petrominerales (PMG-T) as well as the Bakken play in Saskatchewan. Probably fairly valued.

COMMENT

Improving at the moment. Owns a good part of Petrominerales (PMG-T) in Colombia, which came up with good results. Also in the Bakken play in Saskatchewan. The Thai process is still in the proving stage.

WATCH

Questions if they can keep all the balls in the air. He is somewhat sceptical if they can get some of the issues on their Thai process ironed out. Now in the “wait and see” camp.

COMMENT

Has pulled back along with others in the oil stocks. There is also a bit of a caution about the still pilot stage Thai process. Its subsidiary Petrominerales (PMG-T) operating in Colombia has been a fabulous performer. He has taken some profits. Very good managers.

BUY

One of his favourites in the energy business. Oil sands exposure. Like their Thai technology licence for better oil extraction. Also have some land in Colombia that’s valued at zero, which is not realistic.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 31/07. Up 3.5%.) Sold her holdings. Investors are nervous about their holdings in the oil sands and whether it is going to work or not.

TOP PICK

Rapidly rising production profile and steadily rising reserves. Good diversification with 1) the Thai process, 2) the Bakken field in Saskatchewan and 3) the 76.5% interest in Petrominerales (PMG-T).

BUY

Have the Thai upgrading technology in the oil sands. She likes to play upgrading technologies as a portfolio in order to spread the risk. These would include Opti (OPC-T) and Petrobank (PBG-T) and Ivanhoe (IE-T).

HOLD

Their new technology Thai appears to be proving out. Until there is some clarity around the new process he would treat it as a Hold. Colombia holdings are doing really well. Along with their Saskatchewan Bakken play.

DON'T BUY

Earnings have been coming up a bit. Mean estimate is $3 with next year's at $3.74. His model price is $52.34, which is a -3% or 4%.

DON'T BUY

A story that moved very early on in the energy picture. Driven by their technology in heavy oil, the Bakken play that they had a substantial position in and their Colombia assets. Has now plateaued out. Fully priced.

DON'T BUY

Thai technology that, if it works, will revolutionize the oil industry. Still very much in experiment mode. Had a lot of good news baked into the stock price so was expensive. Has been a lot of profit taking. Would look interesting in the low $40's.

HOLD

Has been selling a bit. Likes the management team and what the company has done.

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Petrobank Energy and Resources (PBG.TO)