Greg Newman Norbord Inc. OSB-N PAST TOP PICK Sep 23, 2016

Any time you are getting a 10% dividend, you have to ask why. This company is not earning the dividend. This stock is not behaving at all. Forest stocks in general are behaving pretty well, so he would prefer to focus on lumber.

Cut their dividend down to about 4%. Acquiring Ainsworth Lumber (ANS-T), which will be accretive for them. This is a play on the eventual US housing recovery. OSB prices have stayed really, really low at around $200. Eventually that has to turn up to justify the stock move that this company has had. He would consider Selling a Covered Call on this.

Seasonality on this is similar to most lumber stocks in Canada. Historically it is from October right through until April of each year. Last year it peaked out a little bit early, and did it again this year. Stock is now establishing a downward trend, trading below its 20 day moving average and is underperforming the market.

With the slowdown in US housing, this collapsed. It has oriented strand board production facilities in Canada, the US and Europe. He liked the way the company operated, and then the bottom fell out and it has been struggling ever since. The big thing they need is to see a turnaround in new start housing in the US. There have been some very good numbers, so he is tempted. Very well-run company and they produce a good product, but you need a very strong new housing market. He has been waiting for this to happen for months now.

This will depend on US housing and commodity prices. The US housing has improved recently. They need 1.25-1.5 million housing starts to really get the OSB market going. Dividend yield of 4%.

OSB inventories are said to be at rock bottom levels. This is a concentrated play on US housing. They have merger synergies left with Ainsworth . They realized $20 million and there is a $45 million target. There is not a lot of growth out there and he is looking for names that can benefit from everything. The fact that this company sells into the US really helps. Dividend yield of 1.48%.

A play on housing, which is showing signs of revival. It got beaten up pretty badly. Prices are up nicely in North America and are bottoming in Europe, where 30% of their revenue comes from. The stock is cheap.