Oracle (ORCL)

IBM (IBM-N) or Oracle (ORCL-Q)? Not a fan of either. If looking for a dividend play, IBM pays a much nicer dividend, close to 4% versus 1.5%. Growth rate is probably high single digits. Technicals don’t look very good for either. Would prefer Microsoft (MSFT-Q).

(A Top Pick Dec 3/14. Down 7.21%.) Model price is $47, which is a 23% upside. Still a Buy.

Has held this for a long time. Thinks it is a few years behind Microsoft (MSFT-Q) in the sense that it is trying to get more Cloud sales. Generating an enormous amount of free cash flow and raising its dividend. Management is very bold and very ambitious. Quite cheap on a lot of metrics.

His model price is $61.25, a 40% upside from its current price.

Sold his holdings a few years ago because of slowing revenue growth. They were maintaining their earnings growth, but revenues were starting to slow. When looking at companies, EPS and Price to Earnings Ratios is what everybody wants to look at, but they can be deceiving. This is a good example where a company can grow its earnings by cutting expenses. Revenues are really the fuel of earnings.

(Our records show Apple (AAPL-Q) is his 3^rd Top Pick, not Oracle.)(A Top Pick May 29/14. Up 6.25%) his model price on this is $62.90, a 42% upside.

It is growing nicely at EBV +5, and will be $53 this time next year. His model is $64, or a 46% upside. He can sleep can night with this one.

nOracle (ORCL-N) or Microsoft (MSFT-N)? Sold his holdings because of waning revenue growth, which still persists. Their revenue growth, at best, is low single digit. You have to look at revenue as the fuel of earnings.

Loves it, $58.84 model price, 36% upside. It’s cheap and has a long ways to go.

This is old tech. His model price is $58.52, a 38%-39% upside. CEO just retired. They have huge amounts of cash. The train is heading north on all these large cap values, and all you have to do is just be there. Dividend yield of 1.14%.

(Top Pick Oct 09/13, Up 30.49%) They had missed earnings. A great stock had fallen 10 or 15%. Earnings out tonight, but he does not care what they are. They should be buying back stock and raise dividends, but they want to make acquisitions.

A better play them IBM (IBM-N). Much better balance sheet. Generating a lot more free cash flow. They are already in the Cloud. Buying back stock and making acquisitions. The multiple is quite attractive. 1.1% dividend yield.

The trend is up, but it pulled back to support again. This stock should be part of everyone’s portfolio. Enterprise systems, the cloud, etc. Buy at $35-$37, or at least below $40 would be a great buy and there should be tremendous long term support.

(Top Pick Jul 08/13, Up 34.93%) Sold because it got a little rich. 14-15 times earnings. He should have hung on longer. PE is not bad and they have a good buyback program in place and it is a great way to play IT spending. If you still own it hang on to it.

Concern is if their business model is sustainable going forward. They had acceleration in software sales the past quarter. They have new product initiatives for the near future. A decent entry point here.