Rob Lauzon NVIDIA Corporation NVDA-Q BUY Mar 25, 2024

When DeepSeek came out, he started selling out of this position. People are selling the Mag 7, and there might be some anti-US sentiment globally. Recent charges on China, tariff concerns. At some level it becomes cheap; at 15x 2027 earnings, with 28% growth, it's gotten oversold. Blackwell chips are the catalyst.

Will only work if we're still in a bull market. US administration could tip us into a recession. Risk to this name, especially with no dividend. Start picking away ~$100-104. Be an incremental purchaser of growth names for when we do come out of this darker economic time.

The DeepSeek threat is overblown; we're not seeing mass cancellation of orders at Nvidia, but even an increase--chips are sold out for the year. Alphabet just praised its relationship with NVDA. And yet, NVDA hasn't recovered from January's DeepSeek news. He trimmed his holding, but still owns a lot of shares. However, the White House has made NVDA a political football. Shares should not have fallen in the first place.

He has been buying tech during this dip, in April particularly. We will eventually exit this volatility and find stability and confidence in the market again. Meta and Microsoft are some of his key holdings, and they affirmed their capex guidance--they are spending to make incredible investments over the next three years, because they know AI is the biggest super-cycle every in technology. There is incredible pent-up demand for AI from businesses and consumers. The CEO of MSFT reported that his company processed 50 trillion tokens last month alone, or 3.5 million years of AI conversation. 

Clearly the leader. Everyone loves the Blackwell chip, and people pay a lot for it because there's no competitor. Grew revenues over 100% last 2 years; estimated at 50% this year. Tariff impact unknown. Risk is competition. Once we conclude the data centre buildout cycle, what then?

His firm owns AVGO as a proxy for the chip buildout.

So tied into ETF buying and selling that when it sells off, it's very aggressive. If you believe in the stock longer term, then buy when there's a big selloff. Current leader in AI, but it won't be the only game in town. CEO is dumping stock like a wild man, so be careful.

Watch Jensen Huang's keynote at Computex Sunday 11 pm EST. He could be announcing new products. NVDA shares have jumped 16% this week and back to $3 trillion in market cap, thanks to new Middle East orders. He wouldn't be surprised if NVDA had more room to run.

Has to be in your top 5 holdings, even at $137. If you can ever get it just under $100, it'll be golden for you, you'll just have to back up the truck. 12-month price target of $161.40, and that's only going to move up. NVDA is to GPUs as AAPL is to smartphones. Making a lot of "other bets" that will pay off for them as it did for GOOG.

If you don't own it, buy 1/4-1/3 of a position here, another bit in the $120s, and then around $110.

Likes it ahead of next week's earnings. They beat top and bottom line their last 4 quarters and expects a fifth.

Will a new Blackwell chip they will send to China be a big source of income? Doesn't know, but what is Trump's view of this deal? China can play the long game vs. the U.S. As for NVDA's earning this week, analyst estimates are spanning a broad, but not crazy $140-200. There are 68 buys, 9 holds and 1 sell. For NVDA to take out $150 resistance, their quarter must be stallar and include no worries about China--and he doesn't see that. So, the stock may retreat to around $120, but not to April's lows in the $90's.

Won't easily be toppled from the throne on which it finds itself. Every time someone thinks they can do that, it comes out with a new version of the chip that's even better. Definitely the bellwether on demand going forward. Any sign of negativity in the comments tonight won't play well for any name in this arena.

He has a coin to flip on what the results are going to be. The interesting thing about today's report is that he feels the bar's being set a bit lower than in previous quarters. We're now in the thick of uncertainty about where the economy is going after the impact of Trump's policies over the next 6 months. We've heard cautionary whispers coming out, so analysts may be looking for some negativity in the comments tonight.

If results aren't as bad as we think, stock could see a nice little pop. Stock's consolidated after a nice rebound from April. It comes down to where's the market, where's the bar been truly set, and what does the CEO say?

Personally, he thinks the street's prepared for some bad news tonight. If it gets that, but nothing worse, it doesn't mean the market will crater on this stock. There will be nagging concerns:  that we've priced too much into the stock, we've priced in too much demand, what's the competition going forward, are there viable and cheaper options coming out of other countries like China? If so, investors will be prepared to pull back. But it's not over yet for the stock; it's still the market leader and a solid company going forward.