Stockchase Opinions

John StephensonAngle Energy IncNGL.TOBUYJan 15, 2013

Recently disposed of some non-core assets and paid down some debt. Attractive. Had a pretty good last quarter. Good little name.

$2.96

Stock price when the opinion was issued

oilgas
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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Sept 11/12. Down 14.08%.) Angle Energy has decided to sell the company and have a takeover bid. She is disappointed that they decided to sell so early. Believes there would’ve been a much higher price in the future had the company been patient. Good management team.

DON'T BUY

During the 2nd quarter, it was revealed that they were going to be dropping their guidance because volumes are going down. Decline rate is relatively high. Have fairly leveraged balance sheet with 2.5X debt to cash flow.

DON'T BUY

There is a record amount of product in the market. Unless a company has a really fantastic asset that is better than what the buyer is purchasing, the likelihood of a very high bid is very low. This company’s drilling has really struggled over the last couple of years and management has over promoted certain plays that have not come to fruition for several years.

PAST TOP PICK

(Down 18.38%) She is still holding. She believes it is a great resource and has bought more. Feels it will come back.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 22/12. Down 53.77%.) Very capable management. NAV is well over $6. Too cheap down here.

DON'T BUY

Has been cheap on NAV for years and stock has been a bit of a disaster. Largely a result of them missing on several key plays. Lost traction with the street and there are no brokerage firms that are really supporting the stock. Also, a victim of a decrease in natural gas liquids pricing. They have lower valued NGLs, which has impacted their revenue stream.

DON'T BUY

(Market Call Minute.) Would stay away. Looks like they are spending more to produce less. They’ll have to sell the company at some point.

BUY

Liquids rich gas play. Was challenged earlier this year because a lot of their liquids are not oil. Had some good results from their key Cardium play. Still pretty cheap at 4.2-4.3 times cash flow on a 2013 basis. Expects that $4 is fair value.

TOP PICK

Smaller cap name but have really grown a lot through the drill bit with over 15,000 barrels a day of production. Strong management. Both 50% liquids and 50% gas so they still have a bit of a sour taste in the market but they are really moving towards more liquids.

BUY
Likes Legacy (LEG-T), Angle (NGL-T) and Renegade (RPL-X). They’ve all been hammered in this market because of the rush to create liquidity in portfolios and concerns that oil has broken through the $80 level. This one has been a little disappointing but is very well run. Fundamentally cheap and well under NAV. Could eventually be a takeover candidate.
HOLD
Pretty well run company. Management has been mildly guilty of promoting a play and then results didn't exactly pan out how expected. Their current play is a very liquids rich special oil play in the Cardium seems to be performing very well with very good economics.
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick March 25/11. Down 51.19%.) Used a stop loss and ended up with a 4.9% loss in August.
WATCH
Used to own and would revisit on a really durable recovery in natural gas. Weighted about 50-50 natural gas liquids to natural gas. About 17,000 BOE's. Very well-run and excellent track record of exploration and development.
WEAK BUY
Always chatter that Pen growth would buy them. Thinks they are an ok stock to own. Thinks they have increased risk because of liquidity. Thinks it will be a plodder here.