Stockchase Opinions

Michael Sprung New Flyer Industries Inc. NFI-T TOP PICK Jan 08, 2020

The stock was punished a while ago and now the valuation is just too attractive. The UK acquisition has been slow to provide returns. They are the largest manufacturer of motor coaches in North America and there is a lot of public transit infrastructure that will need to be replaced in the years to come. The downside, relative to upside potential, makes this a good investment. Yield 5.90% (Analysts’ price target is $33.44)
$28.710

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Automotive
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DON'T BUY

Too volatile for her. Stay away. Ranks 1/10 on value. Upside to street's price target only 1.5%, so risk/reward is just not there.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jul 18/23, Up 49%)

The pandemic hurt them with supply chain troubles. It is well run and the balance sheet should get better. It is the only game in town for municipalities buying buses. He thinks the dividend gets re-instated in 2025 or 26.

DON'T BUY

He bought it below $10, but then took profits around $15. He watches it. Wants to see them deliver growth ahead.

DON'T BUY

Concerns regarding tariffs on components and whether Trump will expand public transit. Making progress on debt, but it's still too high. Supply chain issues. Too many questions to step in:  growth, costs, debt.

TOP PICK

One of the only players left for electric buses, which gives them more bargaining flexibility. Latest supply-chain issue on seats is a one-off. Backlog is bigger than ever. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $20.80)
DON'T BUY

At the end of the day, being a manufacturer is quite tough. Plus, they're in Canada. Significant amount of debt. Counting on smaller levels of government making orders, but there's not a lot of $$ to go around. These buses are a big capital expenditure, and it's hard to justify that in a budget. No dividend.

Instead look for a company that produces component parts at low cost, but very important to the vehicle. That component would have an element of pricing power.

BUY

He's been adding. Their downturn lat year started with a seat supplier, then tariff worries hit. Eventually, shares will bounce. They have almost no competition in transit buses in the US. We'll see.

WATCH

Struggled over the years. Good exposure to EVs. Problem is lots of leverage. As well, a bus can't be shipped if it's missing even 1 component; it has to wait. Exposed to tariffs, as it relies on US for some of those parts. 

Management's done well refinancing debt and working through problems. If problems can be resolved, could have very high performance over next few years.

TOP PICK

Competition has withered away. Pays no dividend. He's held this through some tough periods. The problem with a seat suppliers seems to be resolved. Huge backlog. They can withstand tariffs. If they deliver some buses in Q2, 3 and 4, the stock will look good in 12 months.

(Analysts’ price target is $20.50)
TOP PICK

One of only 2 names she owns with no dividend. For her to do that, she really has to have conviction on the company and its stock price trajectory. Biggest segment is manufacturing transit buses, also does coach buses. Supply chain issue with seats is slowly getting alleviated. Backlog at record levels. Pricing environment is good. 

Very limited competition, as pandemic wiped out most of their peers. Public funding is still strong. One of the only companies that complies with buy-American-zero-emissions policy. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $20.75)