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Opinions Peter Hodson
Nebius Group NBISTOP PICKSep 19, 2025
Peter HodsonStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
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Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported -0.32 USD per share, beating the -0.77 USD estimate by 57.72%. Revenue for the same period reached 399.00 M USD, despite the estimate of 375.13 M USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect -0.56 USD in earnings per share and 594.84 M USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 323% in the past 24h.
Reported this morning, up 15% last he checked.
Think of them as intelligence farms and data centres. You can get a lot more $$ from renting the GPUs than people had thought, and the assets don't depreciate as quickly as feared. There's just so much demand.
CRWV was contentious when it came out, as it was a race between its interest expense on debt versus revenue generated from renting out compute.
Likes both, prefers NBIS. A bit more responsible with its balance sheet.
Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported -0.99 USD per share, beating the -1.03 USD estimate by 3.75%. Revenue for the same period reached 227.70 M USD, despite the estimate of 247.28 M USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect -0.77 USD in earnings per share and 375.13 M USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 153% in the past 24h.
Has done well. Be careful. Not a long-term hold. There's a reason MSFT is renting from them and not building the data centres themselves. It's a commodity business over time. Not the best proposition in the value chain.
Tactically, the golden time to own. So hold on, don't trim yet. But keep an eye on the trigger for when to get out.
The deal prices tonight. Yesterday's major contract (comments posted) requires capital to execute, and they're comfortable with the company maintaining financial flexibility. They view yesterday's rally as excessive and today's decline as overdone. With a 45-50% conversion premium across two tranches, dilution is limited unless the stock rises 45%+ (though they doubt investors would mind in that scenario). Coupons are low and provide tax-deductible interest. The stock's volatility remains frustrating, but they believe this is the right move following such a significant contract win. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Stockchase InsightsPremium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported -0.41 USD per share, beating the -0.56 USD estimate by 26.35%. Revenue for the same period reached 146.10 M USD, despite the estimate of 157.88 M USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect -1.03 USD in earnings per share and 247.28 M USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 555% in the past 24h.
She prefers the bitcoin miners, as their business model is a bit less risky. Both of these names look pretty attractive here, as H100 and H200 chip prices are still going up. So there's a bit more upside in the short term. Over the cycle, they don't have demand locked in. They're investing a lot of capex, and though demand is there today, the future is uncertain.
CRWV has the backing of NVDA, so it may be a bit better on risk/reward. Both have similar exposure.
Builds data centres, buys NVDA chips, and then signs contracts with hyperscalers. There's so much demand for AI, that if you have capacity the way Nebius does, then the world's your oyster. Not a small company, but higher up the risk scale than his firm typically plays.
It comes down to when supply matches demand -- 10 years, or just 3-4?
Jamie Murray 
AI data centre market, along with 4-5 other divisions. Stock's moving now because of AI. Lots of experience in data centres. Last week, won $19.5B contract from MSFT. They also raised $4.5B in capital. So market cap's gone from $2-3B to $20B. Not a slam dunk, but the MSFT deal gives them business for a year and they build out from there.
(Analysts’ price target is $127.20)Research from GS suggests revenue base will go up 26x by end of 2026. Trading at 5x revenue, compared to many peers at 15-20x. No dividend.