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Nebius Group NBISHOLDSep 12, 2025
Stockchase InsightsStock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 16, 2026. Market Open.
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Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported -0.32 USD per share, beating the -0.77 USD estimate by 57.72%. Revenue for the same period reached 399.00 M USD, despite the estimate of 375.13 M USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect -0.56 USD in earnings per share and 594.84 M USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 323% in the past 24h.
Reported this morning, up 15% last he checked.
Think of them as intelligence farms and data centres. You can get a lot more $$ from renting the GPUs than people had thought, and the assets don't depreciate as quickly as feared. There's just so much demand.
CRWV was contentious when it came out, as it was a race between its interest expense on debt versus revenue generated from renting out compute.
Likes both, prefers NBIS. A bit more responsible with its balance sheet.
Premium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported -0.99 USD per share, beating the -1.03 USD estimate by 3.75%. Revenue for the same period reached 227.70 M USD, despite the estimate of 247.28 M USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect -0.77 USD in earnings per share and 375.13 M USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 153% in the past 24h.
Has done well. Be careful. Not a long-term hold. There's a reason MSFT is renting from them and not building the data centres themselves. It's a commodity business over time. Not the best proposition in the value chain.
Tactically, the golden time to own. So hold on, don't trim yet. But keep an eye on the trigger for when to get out.
The deal prices tonight. Yesterday's major contract (comments posted) requires capital to execute, and they're comfortable with the company maintaining financial flexibility. They view yesterday's rally as excessive and today's decline as overdone. With a 45-50% conversion premium across two tranches, dilution is limited unless the stock rises 45%+ (though they doubt investors would mind in that scenario). Coupons are low and provide tax-deductible interest. The stock's volatility remains frustrating, but they believe this is the right move following such a significant contract win. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Stockchase InsightsPremium contentIn the last quarter, the company reported -0.41 USD per share, beating the -0.56 USD estimate by 26.35%. Revenue for the same period reached 146.10 M USD, despite the estimate of 157.88 M USD. For the next quarter, analysts expect -1.03 USD in earnings per share and 247.28 M USD in revenue. Social media mentions are up 555% in the past 24h.
She prefers the bitcoin miners, as their business model is a bit less risky. Both of these names look pretty attractive here, as H100 and H200 chip prices are still going up. So there's a bit more upside in the short term. Over the cycle, they don't have demand locked in. They're investing a lot of capex, and though demand is there today, the future is uncertain.
CRWV has the backing of NVDA, so it may be a bit better on risk/reward. Both have similar exposure.
Builds data centres, buys NVDA chips, and then signs contracts with hyperscalers. There's so much demand for AI, that if you have capacity the way Nebius does, then the world's your oyster. Not a small company, but higher up the risk scale than his firm typically plays.
It comes down to when supply matches demand -- 10 years, or just 3-4?
Jamie Murray 
The giant recent contract won by the company does require capital, and this is the main reason NBIS has raised close to $4 billion (including the stock issuance and convertible debentures). Considering the stock was only in the $90 range for 24 hours, we think the price is a good deal for the company. Seeing strong institutional investor support after a 50% gain in the stock is a very strong sign. It does not necessarily cap the stock. There are a lot of new shareholders, and if the company continues to execute well they will continue to support it and buy. If there is a second large contract then shares could still do very well. We would be very comfortable holding it after recent events.
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