National Bank of Greece SA (NBG)

What you’ll probably find is that the US banks will move first, but a little slower. UK banks will be next and then Continental banks will be 3^rd. Biggest upside is obviously going to come from the banks that have risen in the economies that have been most damaged. Greece is a definite example of this. You have to really look at the balance sheet and how much capital has gone into this and that Greece exporting is going to be able to perform. He is not so sure on the last point, but does think there is some upside here. A little more risky than what he would tend to do.

Like all European banks, they have gone through a very rough time. Thinks that the balance sheet repair job is done. Didn’t have to, but was forced to raise a lot of equity which hurt the stock price. Feels the balance sheet is in good shape. Have lots of excess capital. Owns a lot of government bonds, which are going up in value. Now it is just a question of a turnaround in the economy in Greece.

National Bank of Greece SA (NBG-N) or Lloyds TSB Group PLC (LYG-N)? Likes both banks. Both are on his watchlist. If he were going to buy one, it would probably be the National Bank of Greece, but it is far riskier than Lloyds. Both have tremendous upside, but they both have an awful lot of shares, which will inhibit the upside somewhat.

If you have a trading account, and if your risk profile will take it, take a trade in it. The banking group in Europe is not as far along as North American banks. Regulators still have an awful lot of say in it. Put a Stop underneath it, and don't let it go down on you. Use it as a trading situation.

Greece is a very troubled market and for that reason he doesn’t go there. Thinks the macro on Europe is that Europe has bottomed. It’s a very good sign that they were able to pass some bonds into the market. The volume in the stock is probably related that people could sell and get off. He would not buy this for his clients because it is highly speculative. If you can trade this type of stock, then definitely do that.

Owning a Greek bank is a bit of a crap shoot. Although the economy is recovering, it is still on shaky grounds.

Thinks there is a chance for huge upside on this. Has stabilized to a large degree. Greece is out of the news now for the most part so, to a large degree, it has stabilized. High risk. It could go down further, but for a contrarian investor, it is an interesting kind of play. If he were buying, he would want it at a lower price point.

Probably one of the worst economies in Europe and still talks of leaving the Euro. It is a very challenged trade. Look at the UK because it was first into the recession.

We don’t know what is going to happen to Greece. It still has too much debt. Bondholders may take another haircut on the bonds they own. The economy is truly going nowhere despite the improvement in the deficit numbers. Too much risk.

Thinks there is a lot more to go on this one. Not long ago, this was an $18-$20 stock. Just a simple leveraged bet on a turnaround in the Greek economy. Greek national bonds were upgraded recently, still weak, but nevertheless the trend is improving. Also, owns a big stake in a Turkish bank and Turkey’s economy is quite healthy. Have some real estate assets that are probably worth more than the average investor thinks.

Used to own. Has tremendous upside potential. 4-10 bagger. Risk is very palpable and one has to be very, very wary. Three times the beta of the S&P.

The good thing is that it hasn’t fallen over, so there must be something there. This is in a very toxic macro environment. Has high unemployment. Greek government has constantly had to go back to the ECB to get capital. There is a potential risk of Greece pulling out of the euro.

He would not touch this. There are some major issues around Greece. In the very near-term Greece has to go back and borrow more money from the European Central Bank. A lot of macro issues there. High unemployment.

Not a business that he would own in his portfolio.

A gambling stock. Has to be re-capitalized. A dangerous investment.