National Bank of Greece SA (NBG) Buy, Sell or…

National Bank of Greece SA (NBG)

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2 watching

DON'T BUY

A very risky investment. Could even be put in the category of a gamble. In Europe, a lot of the banks need to be recapitalized and that is going to be a challenge. This is in a market where demand has just been destroyed, jobs have just been destroyed. There’s hardly anyone working there at the moment.

COMMENT

This is on his Watch List. He owned this and lost money on it. Great contrarian play for those willing to take a big risk. Greece hasn’t been in the news quite so much but they are anything but out of the woods. If it turned around, it could easily be a 5 bagger. He is watching it.

DON'T BUY

Was looking at all the Greek banks consolidating or merging but looking at the last couple of weeks, nationalizing of banks looks more likely.

COMMENT

He will probably sell his position and take a tax loss before the end of the year. The question is, will it be nationalized at some point. If there is a further write off of Greek bonds, this will be hurt badly. High, high risk.

RISKY

Much riskier than City. If it moves could moves higher than triple. Be very weary of Greek bonds.

WEAK BUY

Has it in his personal portfolio. Could see it possibly going into receivership and how it could take a haircut because of the Greek bonds but it is the leading bank in Greece and government employees salaries go through this. Highly risky.

BUY

Chart shows a low in March 09 and in 2010 forming a double bottom. Distance between the 200 day moving average and the lows is almost the same indicating the stock has been drastically oversold. He would think the worst is over.

BUY

Shows a double bottom of $2.20 in 09, followed by huge gain in 09, another bottom in 2010. Starting to show strength but expects to hit resistance at about $3.50. Showing some turnaround. Make sure positive momentum continues. Stop/Loss at about $2.60. Could see $4.40.

RISKY

NBG-N is something he has bought for his personal portfolio. Could be a 4 or 5 bagger but very risky.

TOP PICK

Very speculative and very dangerous. If they have difficulties with their bonds, it will hurt them. Could turn out to be an excellent play highly risky.

COMMENT

Both Greece and Cyprus are two of the fastest growing financial services markets in Europe. Their earnings and balance sheet are growing at roughly 20%-25%. You could also look at the national Bank of Cyprus (sticker unknown), which is growing even faster.

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National Bank of Greece SA (NBG)