Paul Harris, CFAModernaMRNACOMMENTJul 21, 2020

Up 72% in Q1 and one of the best performers on the S&P. They settled some lawsuits which were an overhang and got its new flu vaccine approved by the FDA. Also, the vaccine skeptic who is in charge of approving vaccines will be leaving his job next month.

Up nearly 50% last month. It began to rally last November after an investor day when they said they would return to revenue growth in 2026 for the first time since 2021. And maybe what RFK Jr wants to do to the vaccine industry isn't as frightening as we thought. Moderna might deliver those personalized cancer vaccines. However, It removes deeply unprofitable and will stay this way for a while. Are better pharma names.

Chart over 5 years shows how it went parabolic, and then gave it all back. Question is whether there are adjacent markets where it can use its technology, and the answer is too difficult to handicap. Biotech tends to be a binary business, boom or bust. He's not an expert in biotech, so is not comfortable participating.

No revenue growth and the company seems unconcerned that they are losing so much money. This is why sentiment has turned against MRNA.

Post-Covid, they have a pipeline of drugs under development, related to vaccines and cancer. This is higher-risk in health care. They have $3 billion in revenues, but are spending a lot in R&D, more than their revenues, so they're not profitable. 

They aren't delivering on the things--vaccine results--they promise. He struggles with this stock.

They should have done something with the money they had, and are now losing money hand over fist.

Down 33% the past month and could fall more. It isn't making any money and isn't delivering cancer vaccines.

They aren't producing the personalized cancer vaccines he expected, nor using AI as he hoped.

Moderna rallied 29% in May after a good report and news on developing a bird flu vaccine to fight that epidemic. Another boost came when the government approved their RSV vaccine. But Moderna is expected to lose money in the foreseeable future. Instead, look at biopharma.

It's had a huge price surge recently and is now too pricey. Prefers Pfizer.

A staple, and that sector is starting to outperform the market. A value play. His target is around $200-ish, if it can break resistance around $140. If it fails, give it a few days, and then walk away if you have to.

They have special technology; this morning they announced a collaboration with AI. Shares have been declining and there are sellers everywhere. You have to wait until they invent the special vaccines en masse they promised.

Believes in the CEO and their technology. Buy below $100.

Down 44% in 2023. They made the first Covid vaccine and made a ton of sales, but they suffer losses now. It didn't pull off a cancer vaccine as some hoped for. But it's up 9% in the past week. Maybe there's hope.