Stockchase Opinions

Jon Case Marathon Gold Corp MOZ-T BUY Mar 05, 2018

They put out a resource and the shares have fallen back. It is an economic resource and quite impressive. The difficulty is how to mine it. They need to add more oz. and mine them economically. But it is a good name to own.

$0.960

Stock price when the opinion was issued

Mining
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BUY

He follows it. Likes it. He has a $14 price target. Has great potential.

COMMENT
Good managers in Newfoundland. But the issue is the continuity of the gold, so he's never bought it. An interesting play and geopolitcally good though infrastructure is slightly challenged. There's a potential for a big strike.
RISKY
It looks interesting. Their project is coming along well. However, it wouldn't been the first company in the sector he would buy. They are a gold developer that comes in a little behind of gold itself and producers. However, there is support. They are in Canada. (Analysts’ price target is $2.50)
RISKY
He does not own this, but has it as a speculative buy with a $2.50 target. He prefers to begin building a portfolio with royalty companies as they are the least risky, followed by the lowest cost producers and finally producers like this one. Their deposits appear attractive.
COMMENT
Recently upgraded the price target. A play on Newfoundland. Still bullish on it. (Analysts’ price target is $4.00)
WAIT
Great asset in Newfoundland & Labrador. Unlikely to be a target of M&A. In "sleepy" mode, so there's elevated execution risk. Costs are higher than he likes, but still profitable at today's gold prices.
HOLD
Gold market is volatile, but there is opportunity for long term investors. Solid junior producer with good assets. Not expecting growth in share price until gold prices rise.
HOLD
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research.

Investors did not like MOZ's revised study last year, and until recently the sector has not done much, either. The stock is down 25% YTD and 57% in 52-weeks. The recent cost update does show a slightly lower cost than last year, but of course this can change as construction continues. It now has 440 workers and is 27% complete.  It remains on schedule for first gold pour in Q1 2025. There has been some minor insider buying. We consider it 'OK'. It is always hard to ascertain value when a mine is under construction. Problems can develop, and the mine has to perform to specifications. We have no specific reason to worry, but there is always risk (grades, costs, environment, inflation). We think it is a decent project, but share count has risen sharply and could still go higher. Once the mine is operational the stock should get re-rated, assuming all goes as planned.
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DON'T BUY

Merger with CXB. Could argue that this takes away the true upside of the Valentine project, which is under construction. Met a shortfall in financing to complete the mine. From CXB's view, you could argue that merger reduces risk, improves capitalization, diversifies outside Canada.