Opinions
Javed Mirza
Manulife Financial
MFC-T
HOLD
Jan 31, 2025
Stock price when the opinion was issued
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A year it ago, it traded at a dirt cheap 6-7x PE. Many thought it was left for dead with bad insurance contracts. In Dec. 2023, they sold a lot of those contracts at a decent price. That's when he entered this. But he recently sold this to buy TD (which has more upside).
Markets are tough and can be counter-intuitive. Great beat, and the sector is sheltered from tariffs. Free of negative surprises, unlike SLF. Street models 12.5% EPS growth, trading at 9.34x -- cheaper and more compelling than banks.
The answer could be that the good news was already baked into the stock. He'd take it as a really good sign that it's actually up in the past week of a really tough market. More to go, but doesn't go in a straight line. He's long this one.
Nice Q4 beat. Provides some shelter from tariffs. Still trades at slight discount of 9x, growing ~12%. Nice dividend. Competitor SLF is the one that's had 2 negative surprises in a year.
Still a buy, but be aware that investors are flocking to this area, so it could eventually drop. Great compounder from here for the next 5 years.
All the insurance names, both in Canada and the US, continue to work. If interest rates do, in fact, go higher, that will only be beneficial for lifecos and other insurers. The chart looks fantastic. Good run, so there is some weakening in the intermediate term.
If a long-term holding, best thing you can do is sit on your hands and do nothing except participate in the DRIP program. Especially if he's right on the broader call of rates being 8-10% in the secular bear market of 2030-40, should be a big tailwind for insurers.