Stockchase Opinions

The Panic-Proof Portfolio (Stockchase Research) Manulife Financial MFC-T TOP PICK May 05, 2022

Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly With a market cap of $50 billion, MFC is one of Canada's largest financial services firms. It is in a space that tends to benefit from rising interest rates and we reiterate it as TOP PICK. It trades right at book value and at 7x earnings, it is good value here. The dividend was recently bumped up over 17% and is backed by a payout ratio under 35% of cash flow. We are recommend to slide the stop (down from $24.50) to $21.50, to accommodate current market uncertainty, looking to achieve $30 -- upside potential over 20%. Yield 5.19% (Analysts’ price target is $30.00)
$24.950

Stock price when the opinion was issued

insurance
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PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 15/24, Up 23%)

Insurance companies have been better insulated from tariffs. Interest rates going up would help them. Really nice beat on Q4, really clean earnings (uncharacteristic after the last 20 years). Growing 12%, trading at 8.2x. Yield is 4%, growing ~8% a year. Asset sales. 

Could still be a Top Pick in an environment like this.

BUY

They've repositioned themselves in good growth areas. Maybe questions about their exposure to Asia (so does SLF-T), but Asia offers good growth potential. No problem this being a core holding.

DON'T BUY

Fairly insulated from tariffs, it's more the economic exposure that is a risk. As markets get more volatile, revenue from its asset management side will go down if markets go down. Between MFC, SLF and GWO, he'd pick GWO.

DON'T BUY
Why doesn't it get more traction?

The insurance business, in general, is not expanding dramatically. You get the nice dividend, which means they're not investing in the business. And they don't invest in the business because there's really nowhere to put their money for a high ROIC. Highly regulated, higher interest rates have a negative impact.

For him, the dividend is not a reason to buy things. Doing a good job, but there are better places to invest in financial services.

BUY

Pays a good yield and all the insurers are doing well.

TOP PICK

Doesn't believe Asian exposure is affected by US-China issues. Would only be affected secondarily if economy started to slow and people had less money in general. 

Nice recent beat. Still has momentum in Asia. Wealth management earnings were up 8%, even after the $43M charge on California wildfires. At 9.7x PE for 2026, still cheaper than Canadian banks and than SLF and GWO. Reasonable 10% growth rate. Lowest payout ratio among peers. Another "when", not "if", story. Yield is 4.02%, with nice growth.

(Analysts’ price target is $47.93)
BUY

Look to this name for income, not for growth. Solid dividend yield, north of 5%. Some growth over time. Reasonable valuation, around 10x PE. Growing in Asia. His favourite in the space is GWO.

HOLD

Has done well this past year. Decent income stock. In the financial services sector right now, her preference is the Canadian banks. But you can continue to hold this name. Its focus on services means she's not worried about impact of tariffs.

DON'T BUY
MFC vs. SLF

MFC is such a complex company, really hard to figure out. If he can't figure it out, he just stays away. If you compare the two right now, SLF is incrementally more profitable and more transparent. Nothing compelling about the price.

WEAK BUY

Very strong franchise in Asia. Life insurance benefits from aging demographics, as well as people in developing and emerging markets purchasing life insurance for the first time. Undemanding PE. Nice dividend.