Dan Nathan Meta Platforms Inc META-Q BUY Dec 28, 2022

Profit-taking in the Mag 7. Will be a leader for 2025 once we get through all this. Deeply integrated into people's lives. Digital ad spending on the rise, sales are expected to grow 15% in 2025 alone. Increases in ad pricing will continue to drive steady revenue. Smarter feeds based on AI. Spending is a bit high, but multiple ways to recoup investment. Financially solid. Yield is 0.36%.

Her target is $800, so about 37% upside. Recent market volatility might temper near-term gains. Fundamental score is 9/10.

You'd think it had nothing to do with tariffs, and he's a bit pressed to explain why it's down today. It has the feel of a capitulation moment, where people are using tariffs as an excuse to sell. Baby out with bathwater.

Like every chart, taken lumps over last little while. Back to doing great things after stepping away from the metaverse. Tariffs may affect it around the edges, but not at its core. 1 in 2 people in the world uses a META product every day. Multiple is not challenging. Yield is 0.41%.

Management issues seem contained. Regulatory issues will always come up. Interestingly, EU-announced tariffs didn't touch communication services companies, which is different from past practices.

Sold off massively, but it and its peers can still own the world. Billions of dollars from advertising. CEO has proven to be one of the great internet entrepreneurs. Trading at 20x PE, an unbelievable multiple for a company that could grow 10-15% for the next decade. Big long-term story on AI. Yield is 0.42%.

Really good run into the inauguration, now fallen. Trial with the FTC over Instagram and WhatsApp is revealing all the dirty laundry, and that's hurting the stock. Not in China, not affected by tariffs. Already using AI in advertising. 

Buying here won't hurt you if you have a long-term view. Or, you could try to get it cheaper on all the volatility.

A month ago, he reduced his tech holdings a lot. Thirst for AI continues pretty strong. Economic environment would have to be pretty tough for this name to go down too much more, but that could happen.

Both names are great. MSFT is a bit more expensive. META can suffer more on advertising if we go into a tougher economic environment. If you're confident that Trump wants to win the midterms and wants to be popular, and that we're going to avoid the worst-case outcome, you can buy both at these levels. Between the two, META gets the nod.

Very positive outlook, based on generative AI trend.

Expects this type of volatility until the fall, and then the whole Trump administration will get into campaign mode for the mid-terms. One of his top 5 holdings, and has been for ages. So many horses in the race, which they've learned how to monetize. 12-month price target of $805, about 28-29% runway.

Between GOOG and META, he'd go 50/50.

Excellent company that meets his criteria. If you made him choose one or the other today, he'd have to say META based on valuation (with the assumption that the investor would hold a position for the long run). MSFT trading ~37-38x PE, whereas META is in the mid-high 20s.

Doesn't own, but respects the name. Pretty decent valuation. Technicals look strong. One step away from breaking previous all-time highs at $740. Paying 27x forward PE for 15% growth, not a bad PEG ratio. Cornering the whole social media space. Watch out for what it's spending on the Metaverse.