John Zechner MDA Ltd. MDA-T BUY Aug 13, 2024

Valuation looks rather expensive. If you own, don't sell. Capitalizing on movement to greater private enterprise in space. Gaining a lot of business. Some engineers he knows think a lot of this company, and that its products and services are critical components of the space race.

Still likes the story. Lightening up, as stock's doubled over the past year. Hasn't been buying since ~$20 level. Valuation's gone up a bit. Great momentum relative to the group. Leading on the number of contracts.

MDA is not cheap at 37X earnings. But it has nice contract, a competitive edge (barriers to entry), a strong balance sheet and solid growth. EPS should rise at least 33% next year and it has leverage to further contracts. Debt is barely six months' cash flow. Free cash flow was $258M in the last 12 months. The last quarter was very strong and well ahead of estimates. We think $27 would be a good price. 
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It covers making satellites to software management. It is a great Canadian story and an example of how good Canada can be. It should grow by 30% for three years with great margins and trades at 13 times cash earnings. He is looking for a quick increase in the stock price to $50.    
Buy 6  Hold 2  Sell 0

Last few years have seen a resurgence of investment in space. Secured contract to build satellites for AAPL contractor. He's been buying recently, not that expensive. Exceptional long-term growth.

They make the Canada Arm but the real growth in the satellite business is in low orbit satellites - it is much cheaper. MDA is a leader in this with a big backlog and a lower cost structure. It has done well in this area lately but there is lumpiness in the earnings.

Parabolic move, which will wash out either in a downtrend or sideways action. Got the pullback, seems to have based, seems to be bouncing off. Resistance around $30. Doesn't look bad, especially in the midst of tariffs, good chance of getting to $30. Have to see if it goes through there.

Very successful. On his farm team. Has been incredibly resilient going through this downturn. Has a deal with AAPL. Talk of a merger in US would require financing; if markets are a bit better, he'd probably participate.

At the time, there were huge announcements coming, and there was a huge order backlog. Is the only pure-play space tech stock in the world. The space economy is booming and they are perfectly positioned. Are famous for their robotics (Canadarm). The backlog has jumped from $3 billion to $5 billion, and recently raised guidance by 40% revenue and EBITDA growth. Trades at a discount to its US peers. 

Friday saw NASA cut funding for a lot of space programs, significant impact on MDA. On his radar. Really impressive contract wins, revenue growing pretty quickly, sector's been hot. He's invested in companies that depend on government and has been burned before. Be careful.