McDonaldsMCDDON'T BUYJul 17, 2018Stock price when the opinion was issued
As of Jun 04, 2026. Market Open.
Half its business is NA, half international. Not a huge amount of growth, perhaps 5-6%. EPS growth of 7-8%. Opens a few new stores a year. More of a landlord, with over 90% franchised. Very high ROIC.
Only 20x PE today, down from historically high 20s. In his world, it's a staple not discretionary :) Yield is 2.65%.
Was downgraded last Friday and today over fears they won't meet expectations this quarter, including disappointment over MCD's new chicken strips dish, that it won't turn things around. Rather, customer prefer heavily breaded chicken and the find these strips ugly. However, history says it has never paid to downgrade MCD. It's the king, offering good value and is highly well-run. The CEO will figure it out.
This has negative equity (negative price to book). They blew out all their equity in stock buybacks and other payouts. Passive investing has created a growing trend among S&P-500 companies to ignore their valuation because ETF investors don’t do any analysis. This is evident among defense stocks, consumer discretionary companies, consumer staples, and so on. He does not see companies like this going higher and if the company ever stumbles, there is no book value to fall back on.